Ugandan elections 2026 - D-8

 

Repression against opponents intensifies in Uganda ahead of general elections

It has been almost forty years to the day since Yoweri Museveni took power in Uganda, and he intends to renew his mandate in the presidential election of 15 January 2026, seeking a seventh term as head of state. One one main opponent is able to run, Bobi Wine, but his and his party's campaigns are marred by repression.

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Melissa Chemam, 7 January 2026
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At the age of 81, Museveni seems to think a change of power in Uganda isn't possible. But, if the decades-long opponent Kizza Besigye is in prison, the popular former pop singer Bobi Wine, who officially garnered 35 percent of the vote in 2021, is in the race.

According to Kristof Titeca, a professor at the Institute for Governance and Development of the University of Antwerp, Belgium, Museveni will probably win the presidential and his party the legislative elections of 15 January, but the country is more interested in what will come next, especially the succession old autocrat, who is beginning to show signs of weakness.

Another issue is the level of repression against opponents.

 

'Brutal campaign of repression'

According to a statement from Amnesty International, released on Monday, Ugandan security forces have unlawfully targeted opposition rallies with unnecessary and excessive force and arbitrary arrests, and subjected some attendees to torture or other ill-treatment.

The organisation has documented incidents in which security officers launched tear gas at peaceful crowds in Kawempe and Iganga, and pepper-sprayed and beat people. These actions were accompanied by undue movement restrictions aimed at disrupting the opposition party National Unity Platform’s (NUP) campaign rallies.

Amnesty International also received reports and verified digital evidence of such disruptions in other parts of the country.

“The authorities have launched a brutal campaign of repression against the opposition and its supporters, making it extremely difficult for them to exercise their rights to freedom of association and peaceful assembly,” said Tigere Chagutah, Amnesty International’s Regional Director for East and Southern Africa.

“The Ugandan authorities must uphold their human rights obligations and allow the opposition to hold its campaign rallies without undue restrictions and without subjecting their leaders and supporters to arrests, torture or other ill-treatment.”

An eyewitness told Amnesty International that during the Kawempe rally on 24 November, following the arrival of NUP presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, “police launched tear gas and pepper spray, to stop the rally”. The ensuing panic led to a stampede which caused dozens of people to fall into a deep ditch nearby.  The police also used dogs to intimidate the crowd, pushed people into a truck with the butts of their rifles and beat them with batons and wires.

The NGO lists many other incidents, including some deaths.

“Nobody should die simply for exercising their rights to freedom of association and peaceful assembly. Authorities must immediately open impartial and thorough investigations into all alleged instances of unlawful use of force by security forces. Those responsible should be brought to justice in fair trials without recourse to the death penalty,” Tigere Chagutah added.

Amnesty urges Ugandan authorities to "commit to respecting, protecting, promoting and ensuring full respect for human rights before, during and after the elections,” as Tigere Chagutah said.

“They must immediately and unconditionally release anyone detained solely for attending opposition rallies or for their actual or perceived support for the NUP.”

A 'hybrid regime', between between authoritarianism and democracy

The repression was already severe during the last election campaign, in 2021.

"At the beginning of this election campaign, things were rather calm, which surprised quite a few people," Titeca told my RFI colleague, Christophe Boisbouvier. "But as soon as Bobi Wine and his political party, the NUP, really started campaigning, the repression escalated," he added.

There were quite a few arrests. The NUP claims that between 300 and 400 people were arrested. Analysts say it's closer to 200. There was also a real attempt to prevent Bobi Wine and the NUP from campaigning, from organising rallies. 

The repression remains very clear, Titeca insists.

A prominent lawyer, Sarah Bireete, was also arrested.

"This didn't happen in the previous elections," Titeca said. So this is the first time a figure like Sarah Bireete has been arrested on charges that were somewhat vague."

Since 1986, Uganda has been considered a hybrid regime, according to Titeca.

"It has authoritarian tendencies, but also democratic ones. This also means that the government and President Museveni constantly need the support of the international community, namely the European Union and the United States, in other words, the financial and political backing of these international actors."

The most important question for Ugandans is now about what can happen after President Museveni. His son Muhoozi Kainerugaba, in charge of the army, is seen as his successor, which could foresee more repression.

"The biggest danger for the country is: How will this transition unfold? Will the army, the population accept that someone from Museveni's clan once again stays in power?" That remains to be seen, the analyst concludes. 

Somaliland and Israel start reciprocal visits, angering Mogadishu

Somaliland and Israel start reciprocal visits, angering Mogadishu

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, on Tuesday, ten days after Israel formally recognised the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.

Senior Somaliland officials said that Saar met Somaliland's President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi and discussed ways to enhance bilateral ties. 

Israel formally recognised the breaking-away region of Somalia Somaliland as a sovereign state on 27 December, a move that drew criticism from most African countries, including Somalia, which has long opposed Somaliland's efforts to secede.

 The Somali Foreign Ministry denounced an "unauthorised incursion" into Somalia. Mogadishu considers this self-proclaimed republic, which Israel recently recognised, to be part of its territory.

The Somali Foreign Ministry this criticised Gideon Saar's visit  as "a serious violation of Somalia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political unity", and "unacceptable interference in the country's internal affairs," stating that Somaliland is "an inalienable part of internationally recognised Somali territory."

New relations expanding on the Abraham Accords

Abdullahi had suggested last month that Somaliland join the Abraham Accords, a deal brokered by the Trump administration in 2020 that saw Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates — a close partner of Somaliland — and Bahrain establish ties with Israel.

Israel's decision to recognise Somaliland follows two years of increasingly strained ties with many of its closest partners over the war in Gaza and policies in the West Bank.

Analysts believe that an alliance with Somaliland is particularly advantageous for Israel because of its strategic position on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, facing the Houthi rebels of Yemen, supported by Iran, who have carried out numerous attacks against Israel since the beginning of the war in Gaza.

The Israeli foreign minister said in a statement that “unlike ‘Palestine,’ Somaliland is not a virtual state, it is a functioning state."

"Somaliland is a fully operational country founded on the principles of international law," he added. "Somaliland is – and has been – a stable democracy for almost 35 years," and "it is pro-Western and a friend of Israel.”

A strategic location  

Somaliland was for most of the twentiest century a British protectorate while the rest of Somalia was colonised by Italy, until the country's independence in 1960.

The territory lies in northwestern Somalia along the strategic Gulf of Aden and shares land borders with Ethiopia and Djibouti.

Somalilanders joined the new state of Somalia but kept the English-speaking habits and different administrative habits. Since the fall of authoritarian leader Siad Barré, it declared independence and has since sought formal recognition as an independent state for decades, signing bilateral agreements with various foreign governments on investments and security coordination.

Since its declaration of independence in 1991, no other country had formally recognised Somaliland.

What's ahead

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel would pursue cooperation with Somaliland in agriculture, health, technology, and the economy, and has invited Somaliland's president to visit Israel.

The region sits across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthis have launched long-range missile and drone attacks on Israel since October 2023, as part of the Gaza war.

Israel's government has advocated for what officials describe as voluntary Palestinian migration from Gaza. But Somaliland has denied that the Israel recognition agreement allows it to establish military bases, or to resettle Palestinians from Gaza in the region.

Somaliland’s president will head to Jerusalem next week.

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Read also my piece from December 2024:

With a new president, Somaliland seeks international recognition

 

art: “All About Love” by Mickalene Thomas

 

Meanwhile… Some beauty can’t hurt: Impressive Mickalene Thomas exhibition - “All About Love” - at Grand Palais in Paris:

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As usual, I'll have so much to write about her art, but... I'm a news journalist, the world is on fire and democracy is dying...

A threat to the world

 

Words from the independent journalist, Carole Cadwalladr:

This should precipitate a whole new global crisis. It’s an unprovoked military assault on a sovereign nation in breach of international law. What should worry us more is if it doesn’t. The US bombed Nigeria at some point over the Christmas break and it barely broke the sound-news barrier.

How Europe and “the west” responds to Trump now and the actions that governments take downstream from that is going to set the path for 2026. Because Trump isn’t just a rogue, out-of-control president, America is a rogue state. And the longer we fail to acknowledge that, the more danger we are in.

Read on:

The Threat from America

America is not our enemy, but it's a danger to itself and the world

Carole Cadwalladr

Jan 03, 2026

Venezuela - Important comment

 

Important words, from Tammam Aloudat CEO of The New Humanitarian, on his LinkedIn account:

I suppose what we talked in The New Humanitarian most recent Rethinking Humanitarianism podcast about Internatinal Law being under threat and the Liberal International Order failing is now an undisputed fact.
https://lnkd.in/ecfwJT7G

The other failing system is Western journalism. We saw this in the biased coverage of the genocide in Gaza over more than two years. Journalism has become, by and large, a tool for power and any pretence of balance or objectivity, or any adherence to what we are seeing with our own eyes is gone down the drain.

Yet, the past hours are shoking in their own way. All western news outlets repeat the Trump administration talking points: Maduro Captured. Not abducted, not kidnapped, not illegally ceased in an act of agression, but captured as if he was a wanted criminal. No one talks about the need to actually capture Netanyahu, the genocidaire with an ICC warrant against him who still flies over EU airspace with impunity.

The whole of the journalistic world, from the "left" in the Guardian and Independent to the "right" in Fox, The Times, and the Economist parrot the exact words. So do the liberal CNN, BBC, and others.

This is no longer journalism. Why do we even need so many outlets who are all culturally, economically, and politically captured and controlled by ruling classes that have little regard for human life.

All this is not to defend Maduro, to be clear. There are very many ways to be both against dictators and against western imperialism and hegemony. Those are not the only choices we have.

Nigeria was attacked a few days ago, Iran is threatened, Venezuela is attacked, Gaza is still attacked every day. The cowardly EU and its governments have no guts to condemn the vulgar aggression.

We are going towards dark times.

World reacts to US strikes on Venezuela

Jan 3 (Reuters) - Following are reactions to Saturday's U.S. strikes on Venezuela:

RUSSIA FOREIGN MINISTRY

"This morning, the United States committed an act of armed aggression against Venezuela. This is deeply concerning and condemnable."

"The pretexts used to justify such actions are unfounded. Ideological animosity has prevailed over business pragmatism and the willingness to build relationships based on trust and predictability."

"In the current situation, it is important, first and foremost, to prevent further escalation and to focus on finding a way out of the situation through dialogue."

"Latin America must remain a zone of peace, as it declared itself to be in 2014. And Venezuela must be guaranteed the right to determine its own destiny without any destructive, let alone military, interference from outside."

"We support the statement by the Venezuelan authorities and the leaders of Latin American countries calling for an immediate meeting of the UN Security Council."

ARGENTINE PRESIDENT JAVIER MILEI

"FREEDOM MOVES FORWARD. LONG LIVE FREEDOM DAMMIT", wrote Milei, a strong regional ally of Donald Trump.

Milei uploaded a video with his statement on X, where he is seen talking at a summit and describing Maduro as a threat for the region and backing the pressure Trump was putting on Caracas.

"The time to have a timid approach on this subject has passed", Milei had said, according to a video on his X account.

MEXICAN MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

"The Mexican government strongly condemns and rejects the military actions carried out unilaterally in recent hours by the armed forces of the United States of America against targets in the territory of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in clear violation of Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations."

"Mexico emphatically reiterates that dialogue and negotiation are the only legitimate and effective means of resolving existing differences, and therefore reaffirms its willingness to support any efforts to facilitate dialogue, mediation, or accompaniment that contribute to preserving regional peace and avoiding confrontation."

BRITISH PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER

"I want to establish the facts first. I want to speak to President Trump. I want to speak to allies. I can be absolutely clear that we were not involved ... and I always say and believe we should all uphold international law," Starmer said in a statement to British broadcasters.

BRAZIL'S PRESIDENT LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA ON X:

"The bombings on Venezuelan territory and the capture of its president cross an unacceptable line. These acts represent a grave affront to Venezuela's sovereignty and yet another extremely dangerous precedent for the entire international community."

"Attacking countries in flagrant violation of international law is the first step toward a world of violence, chaos, and instability, where the law of the strongest prevails over multilateralism."

UKRAINE'S FOREIGN MINISTER ANDRII SYBIHA:

"Ukraine has consistently defended the right of nations to live freely, free of dictatorship, oppression, and human rights violations. The Maduro regime has violated all such principles in every respect."

"We stand for further developments in accordance with the principles of international law, prioritising democracy, human rights, and the interests of Venezuelans."

BELARUS PRESIDENT ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO

"The President of Belarus CATEGORICALLY CONDEMNS the act of American aggression against Venezuela. Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the consequences just recently in an interview with American journalists. In particular, he said that "it will be a second Vietnam. And the Americans don't need it," Belta news agency cited Natalia Eismont, spokesperson for Lukashenko.

ECUADOR PRESIDENT GABRIEL NOBOA

"The time is coming for all the narco-Chavista criminals. Their structure will finally collapse across the entire continent," he wrote on X.

"To Corina Machado, Edmundo Gonzalez, and the Venezuelan people: it is time to reclaim your country. You have an ally in Ecuador."

URUGUAY FOREIGN MINISTRY

"The Government of the Eastern Republic of Uruguay is following with close attention and serious concern the events that have been reported from Venezuela in recent hours, including U.S. air strikes against Venezuelan military installations and civilian infrastructure."

"Uruguay rejects, as it always has, military intervention by one country in the territory of another and reaffirms the importance of respecting international law and the UN Charter, in particular the basic principle that States must refrain from resorting to the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations."

EUROPEAN UNION HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS KAJA KALLAS:

"I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela."

"The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint."

EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT URSULA VON DER LEYEN:

"Following very closely the situation in Venezuela. We stand by the people of Venezuela and support a peaceful and democratic transition. Any solution must respect international law and the UN Charter."

CHILE'S PRESIDENT GABRIEL BORIC ON X:

"As the Government of Chile, we express our concern and condemnation of the military actions of the United States in Venezuela and call for a peaceful solution to the serious crisis affecting the country."

"Chile reaffirms its commitment to the basic principles of international law, such as the prohibition of the use of force, non-intervention, the peaceful settlement of international disputes, and the territorial integrity of States."

COLOMBIA'S PRESIDENT GUSTAVO PETRO ON X:

"The Government of the Republic of Colombia views with deep concern the reports of explosions and unusual air activity in recent hours in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, as well as the resulting escalation of tension in the region.

"Colombia reaffirms its unconditional commitment to the principles enshrined in the UN Charter, in particular respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of States, the prohibition of the use or threat of use of force, and the peaceful settlement of international disputes. In this regard, the Colombian Government rejects any unilateral military action that could aggravate the situation or put the civilian population at risk.

IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI:

"What matters is that when a person realizes the enemy is arrogantly trying to impose something on the country, on the officials, on the government, and on the nation, one must stand firmly against the enemy and bare one’s chest in resistance. We will not yield to the enemy."

"Relying on Almighty God, trusting in God, and with confidence in the support of the people, God willing and by divine grace, we will bring the enemy to its knees."

SPANISH FOREIGN MINISTRY:

"Spain calls for de-escalation and moderation, and for action to always be taken in accordance with international law and the principles of the UN Charter."

"In this regard, Spain is willing to offer its good offices to achieve a peaceful and negotiated solution to the current crisis."

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO PRIME MINISTER KAMLA PERSAD-BISSESSAR

"Earlier this morning, Saturday 3rd January 2026, the United States commenced military operations within the territory of Venezuela.

"Trinidad and Tobago is NOT a participant in any of these ongoing military operations. Trinidad and Tobago continues to maintain peaceful relations with the people of Venezuela."

RODERICH KIESEWETTER, PROMINENT MP FROM GERMANY’S CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC UNION:

"With President Trump, the U.S. are abandoning the rules-based order that has shaped us since 1945."

"The coup in Venezuela marks a return to the old U.S. doctrine from before 1940: a mindset of thinking in terms of spheres of influence, where the law of force rules, not international law."

"Trump is destroying what was left of any trust in the U.S."

JUERGEN HARDT, FOREIGN POLICY SPOKESMAN OF GERMAN CONSERVATIVES' PARLIAMENTARY GROUP:

"For many years, Maduro suppressed civil society in Venezuela and supported terrorism and drugs in the region as a tool of power to destabilise his opponents. This was a violation of international law. "

"From a human rights perspective, the end of his rule is good news."

BRITAIN'S REFORM UK PARTY LEADER NIGEL FARAGE

"The American actions in Venezuela overnight are unorthodox and contrary to international law - but if they make China and Russia think twice, it may be a good thing."

"I hope the Venezuelan people can now turn a new leaf without Maduro."

ITALIAN OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER AND FORMER PRIME MINISTER GIUSEPPE CONTE:

"The American aggression against Venezuela has no legal basis. We are facing a blatant violation of international law, which certifies the dominance of the strongest and best equipped militarily... I hope that the entire international community will make its voice heard and that everyone will understand that if rules only apply to enemies and not to friends, no one can feel safe anymore. Nor can the illiberal nature of a government's rule justify an attack to a sovereign state."

UK CHATHAM HOUSE THINK TANK'S PROGRAMME DIRECTOR FOR INTERNATIONAL LAW, MARC WELLER

"International law prohibits the use of force as a means of national policy. Short of a U.N. Chapter VII mandate, force is only available in response to an armed attack or possibly to rescue a population under imminent threat of extermination."

"Clearly, none of these requirements are fulfilled by the armed operation against Venezuela. The U.S. interest in repressing the drugs trade or claims that the Maduro government was in essence a criminal enterprise offers no legal justification."

INDONESIA'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON, YVONNE MEWENGKANG:

Indonesia is monitoring developments in Venezuela to ensure the safety of its citizens."

"Indonesia also calls on all relevant parties to prioritize peaceful resolution through de-escalation and dialogue, while prioritizing the protection of civilians."

"Indonesia emphasizes the importance of respecting international law and the principles of the UN Charter."

LEBANESE ARMED GROUP HEZBOLLAH

"Hezbollah condemns the terrorist aggression and American thuggery against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela..."

"Hezbollah further affirms its full solidarity with Venezuela - its people, presidency, and government - in confronting this American aggression and arrogance".

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Toby Chopra, William Maclean)