Goma, DR Congo, Jan 28, 2025 (AFP)
Goma, the main city in the Democratic Republic of Congo's volatile east, is set to fall to the M23 armed group and Rwandan army -- the latest upheaval in a region devastated by three decades of war.
- Who is on the offensive? -
The blitzkrieg on Goma has been led by Rwandan soldiers and the M23 ("March 23 Movement") armed group, which had wrested control of the city in late 2012 before being driven out.
The M23, estimated to be 3,000 strong, has seen a spectacular revival since the end of 2021 with the support of Rwanda and its army.
Between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan soldiers, who are highly trained and have state-of-the-art equipment, are fighting alongside the M23, according to the United Nations.
The two allies entered the city on Sunday evening. On Tuesday, they wrested control of the city's airport.
- What is the Congolese army doing? -
On Saturday, Goma was still defended by several thousand soldiers from the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and local militias, grouped under the name "wazalendo", or "patriots" in Swahili.
The FARDC, known for being undisciplined, poorly equipped and corrupt, are supported by some 10,000 peacekeepers from the United Nations Mission in the DRC, known by its French acronym MONUSCO, soldiers from the Southern African Development Community regional bloc, as well as two private security companies.
They have never managed to stem the onslaught.
- Why Goma? -
Goma is the capital of North Kivu province, rich in natural resources, particularly minerals.
Adjoining the Rwandan border, it is one of the main export routes for products from eastern DRC and of key importance in a sprawling nation with shambolic infrastructure and abysmal roads.
Goma also has an international airport and a lake port, serving the large city of Bukavu, capital of the neighbouring province of South Kivu.
Control of Goma is of huge symbolic significance for the governments of both DRC and Rwanda.
The DRC accuses Rwanda of using the M23 to plunder the natural resources of the east, allegations partly confirmed by UN experts.
Rwanda alleges that its neighbour supports and shelters the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an armed group created by former Hutu leaders of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda who massacred Tutsis.
- Can M23 govern Goma? -
The M23 denies it is supported by Rwanda and portrays itself as a homegrown movement aiming to overthrow the government of President Felix Tshisekedi.
In the areas under its control, the M23 instals a parallel administration -- a model that could be replicated in Goma. However, since 2021, the M23 has never taken a city of such size or importance.
The Congolese army, which has been losing ground to M23 for three years, does not appear to be able to retake Goma.
Before the offensive, hundreds of thousands of displaced people were already crammed in teeming makeshift shelters on the outskirts of the city in extremely precarious humanitarian and security conditions.
The recent escalation has forced half a million people to flee since the start of the month, according to the United Nations.
After the recent fighting, several humanitarian warehouses containing food and medicines were looted, exacerbating the situation.
- Risk of regional conflict? -
The conflicts in the region involve a multitude of players -- both armed groups and countries.
Uganda and Burundi have deployed troops in the east, officially to support the Congolese army, but both are accused of wanting to extend their influence in an area that is increasingly beyond Kinshasa's control.
The resurgence of the M23 in 2021 was partly caused by a rivalry between Rwanda and Uganda over resources in the region.
Eastern DRC experienced a relative lull after the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Kinshasa and Kigali in late July. However, the negotiations never led to a concrete peace agreement.
In December, a summit organised through Angolan mediation was cancelled as Rwandan President Paul Kagame refused to attend.
