Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa?

 

Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa too?

The war on Iran is putting almost the whole world in turmoil, and Africa is not spared. How impactful could the multi-layered conflict become for Africa? 

I asked independent expert Ladd Serwat, one of the senior analysts on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, who is closely monitoring the evolution of the war.

Protesters outside the US Consulate in Johannesburg on 7 March, 2026, during a demonstration against the ongoing war involving the USA, Israel and Iran, expressing solidarity with Iran.

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American military bases in Djibouti and Somalia lie within range of Iranian-aligned groups, while US deployments in Nigeria and Kenya face potential exposure too. 

Israel, for its part, maintains military assets in Eritrea, vulnerable to missile attacks launched across the Red Sea, attacks that could also threaten Egypt as missiles pass through its airspace.

But some African countries also fear security risks coming from the Houthi forces in Yemen. And even more countries already suffer from the rise of oil prices, which have begun to affect food prices too.

And, last but not least, over 700,000 African workers remain in the Gulf region, with airspace closure and airlines struggling to offer support.

Ladd Serwat is a senior analyst on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent conflict monitor providing real time data and analysis for all violent conflict and protests in the world. 

He has been writing analyses on Iran’s regional reach and the security implications of the war for Africa since the beginning of the war. According to him, direct military action by Israel and the US against Iranian allies in Africa remains improbable, but not impossible.

MC: You've been following the consequences of the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. This has had huge consequences on the whole region, on West Asia but also the Red sea, notably on oil prices. But are there real security threats for Africans, especially in the Horn?

Ladd Serwat: I think we do see some potential threats around the Horn especially, the most immediate being those US and Israeli military assets around the region. The US military assets, notably in Djibouti and Somalia are well within striking distance of either. If Houthi allies to Iran ended up getting involved or of Iran's longer range missiles, it's also notable that the US has military assets just south of Somalia, in Kenya, in the north in Lamu County. They're expanding their military base there, just as of recently. The Iranian ambassador to Kenya said they're not planning to strike those assets. And then Israel also has military assets in Eritrea. So, although it may not be the most likely fallout from the conflict, these assets in the Horn would be by far the most likely to be struck.

Iran had some clear allies on the African continent before the war and some less strong partners. Everything has shifted quite strongly right now. So if we focus on the first reactions, South Africa sounded very opposed to the war, at least through the voice of its President. How do you see the reactions? Are they very polarised?  

It's interesting. I think the immediate reaction so far is seen in demonstration movements. They have been taking place in Nigeria, where a group of Shia Muslims have conducted protests in several states already, denouncing the US and Israeli aggression. So, I do expect that to continue in the coming days and weeks. This group has largely been organised through the Islamic movements in Nigeria, so we may see that also increase in other places.

Morocco has also had one of the largest and most ongoing demonstration movements across the continent against Israeli aggressions, initially against Gaza and Lebanon. But it solidified through the political opposition against the position of the Moroccan regime, which has normalised relations with Israel, largely around Friday prayers. These demonstrations have been ongoing for several years now, and I would expect this to be another place where we see opposition expressed around the continent. And as you mentioned, South Africa is another notable place where we could see more protests as well.

Then, there are also many Africans living in the Gulf states that have been attacked by Iran in retaliation to the US-Israeli war. Hundreds of thousands Africans are working in the Gulf states... It is difficult to repatriate a lot of these nationals, especially for African airlines. Some people are stranded in Saudi Arabia and in Dubai. Is it an issue that could weigh on African governments?

At ACLED, we don't monitor some of these dynamics specifically, but what we can say is that these airstrikes that have hit or threatened numerous airports around the Gulf have certainly disrupted the ability for airlines to repatriate their citizens.

Finally, Iran has sometimes been mentioned among the nations that are meddling in the war in Sudan. And there are conflicts reopening in the Horn, in Tigray, in Ethiopia, and in Eritrea. Could this war also impact those regional wars? There are also divergent interests between Somaliland, Djibouti and Somalia regarding their relations with Israel. All this has shifted since the Abraham Accords, signed by Morocco and a few other Arab countries. Do you think that the conflict in and around Iran could change the direction of these alliances?

I think some of this comes back to the million dollar question: how many military assets Iran has? what are the number of missiles that Iran has at its disposal? And how might this affect its ability to provide its various partnerships across Africa? The Sudanese military and the Sahelian states have various partnerships with Iran, have been receiving some of its weapons and are facing strong jihadist threats. So while these states could potentially pivot to other suppliers, this delay or disruption could certainly limit various regimes, and their ability to respond to various threats, especially in the war in Sudan, and against insurgencies. For all these reasons, I think that the wars in the Middle East may have fairly direct consequences to these various conflicts in Africa.

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This interview, originally recorded for our Spotlight on Africa podcast:

>> Spotlight on Africa: Africa faces security worries as Iran conflict spreads

New podcast episode: Iran & Africa

 

Spotlight on Africa

Spotlight on Africa: Africa faces security worries as Iran conflict spreads

US and Israeli attacks on Iran are raising concerns across Africa, from security risks in the Horn of Africa to economic pressures and fears for migrant workers in the Gulf. They also come as West African countries step up cooperation against spreading jihadist violence. In this week’s Spotlight on Africa podcast, we speak to Nigeria’s presidential adviser Sunday Dare and Africa analyst Heni Nsaibia about the risks. 

>> Listen here: https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/spotlight-on-africa/20260317-spotlight-on-africa-africa-faces-security-worries-as-iran-conflict-spreads

As the conflict spreads across West Asia, the Gulf and the Red Sea, worries are growing about how it could affect the African continent.

American military bases in Djibouti and Somalia lie within range of Iranian-aligned groups, while US deployments in Nigeria and Kenya further extend potential exposure.

Israel also maintains military assets in Eritrea, vulnerable to missile attacks launched across the Red Sea. Such attacks could also threaten Egypt if missiles pass through its airspace.

Some African countries fear security risks from the United States, Israel, Iran or Houthi forces in Yemen. Others are already suffering from rising oil prices, related food insecurity and concerns for migrant workers.

More than 700,000 African workers remain in Gulf states as missile strikes continue in the region.

Ladd Serwat, an analyst on Africa at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED – a conflict data organisation), writes regular analyses on Iran’s regional reach and the security implications of the war for Africa.

He said direct military action by Israel or the United States against Iranian allies in Africa remains unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.

Nigeria and jihadist insecurity

Meanwhile, West Africa is facing a rise in jihadist attacks in the Sahel.

Violence has increasingly spread south to coastal countries such as Benin, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire, prompting governments to seek stronger cross-border cooperation.

Authorities in Benin and Nigeria announced this week plans for a joint security operation along their shared border.

The move aims to combat militant groups operating in the area.

In the podcast, Sunday Dare, senior adviser to Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, discusses security challenges facing the country, including the Islamist insurgency and the need for regional and international cooperation.

And Heni Nsaibia, ACLED’s West Africa senior analyst, who's done extensive research on jihadism, explores the relevance of this partnership.

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Episode mixed by Erwan Rome.

Spotlight on Africa is produced by Radio France Internationale's English language service.

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>> Listen here: https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/spotlight-on-africa/20260317-spotlight-on-africa-africa-faces-security-worries-as-iran-conflict-spreads

France votes

 

Local elections were taking place this Sunday throughout France, as the first round of polls, the second one being in a week. 

It is considered as a key vote, as it's the last one before next year's presidential elections, which always get more attention here, and will see Emmanuel Macron leave his seat after two mandates, that already end in a lot of turmoil, with the worst budget/financial situation, and divided parties.

Here are a few visuals in my hood:

Marche des solidarités

 

Marche des solidarités

Place de la Nation, Paris 

ce samedi 14 mars 2026 

Against fascism, racism, police brutality, and the war in the Middle East:

Thousands of people gathered in France on Saturday, 14 March, to defend solidarity, on the eve of the first round of municipal elections, the results of which were highly uncertain. 

At the call of numerous associations, some 85 demonstrations and rallies were organised.

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Contre le fascisme, le racisme, les violences policières et contre la guerre au Moyen-Orient : 

des milliers de personnes se sont rassemblées en France au nom de la défense des solidarités , samedi 14 mars, à la veille du premier tour des élections municipales, aux résultats très incertains. 

A l’appel de nombreuses associations, quelque 85 manifestations et rassemblements étaient organisés.

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On Reuters' Banksy investigation

 

Totally trivial with the current state of the world, but as a once-Bristol-historian, I just have to mention this:

Journalists at Reuters claim to have unmasked Banksy, the anonymous graffiti artist who has long ruled the U.K. art scene with politically provocative murals.

His name, they say, is... Robin Gunningham.

Which... well, his best friends (and as they told me, myself too) always knew that in Bristol, but who was listening?

In my book, it's page 128:

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Reuters says he recently changed his name to David Jones, at most a few years ago. 

"Whether he still uses that name is unclear", the investigation reports.

Details:

The publication makes a host of arguments as to why Gunningham is Banksy, backing up a 2008 report from The Mail on Sunday that also claimed Gunningham is Banksy. 

Led by reporters Simon Gardner, James Pearson and Blake Morrison, it details a complex and extensive hunt for Banksy’s real name.

From New York to London, the so-called investigation pulled its key piece information from a trip to Ukraine: Reuters says Bansky was photographed in November 2022, meeting with locals. 

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I remember when Robert posted photos on Instagram from his trip to Ukraine with Giles Duley. He posted in Feb. 2023, and I assumed he was there then... But he told me he had delayed publication in order to "avoid confusion with the Banksy trip". 

Indeed.

Well, confusion, as usual, not avoided...

The state of journalism...

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Aftermath:

Banksy’s lawyer, Mark Stephens, apparently wrote to Reuters that his client “does not accept that many of the details contained within [the] enquiry are correct.”

 Stephens also told the outlet that publishing their findings “violate(s) the artist’s privacy, interfere with his art and put him in danger,” as well as harm the public.

 “Working anonymously or under a pseudonym serves vital societal interests,” he wrote. “It protects freedom of expression by allowing creators to speak truth to power without fear of retaliation, censorship or persecution.”

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Additional note:

I met Robert Del Naja quite a few times for my book, studied his work in depth and have been corresponding with him for years. I also saw a lot of Bansky's work and exhibitions including the ultimate 'Dismaland. 

I studied art history for a year in Paris, and have been writing about culture & politices for over two decades.

I also interviewed Steve Lazarides for my book, Banksy's first manager and comms wizard.

What I can say is that the two men's art and personality are very different. Robert aka 3D is a visual and sound artist, who's work is voluntarily cryptic. Banksy 'stole' from him the idea of using stencils, it's almost certain, first considered controversial in the underground street art world in the 1980s, then groundbreakingly unseful, and now totally maintreamed.

If they hae a lot in common and are friends, their art could not be more different, and they like it that way.

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For more, a few links in my previous writing:

Banksy is it 3D from Massive Attack? The informed advice of a specialist

Bristol’s original graffiti artists — Reader’s Digest

Bristol Street Art History: Forty Years of Graffiti Arts - Where It All Began

ON BANKSY, MASSIVE ATTACK AND BRISTOL - IN CONVERSATION WITH MELISSA CHEMAM

What Underground Culture Has Given Bristol

Interview: The Story of Massive Attack and Bristol's Underground Culture

Bristol History Podcast - Episode 34 - Melissa Chemam in Conversation

US-Israel war on Iran

 

I'm so annoyed at the media coverage on Iran! "Middle East war" is a misnomer. It obscures who started this (the US and Israel), and who is bearing the brunt of it (Iran and Lebanon). Wrong framing! Plus quoting Trump's lies all day... What are Western media trying to achieve?

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Proper wording:

US-Israel war on Iran

See The New Arab for more: https://www.newarab.com/tag/us-israel-war-iran

More and more Tigrayans to flee north Ethiopia...

 

Following up on the sitaution in Ethiopia: 

Fears of renewed conflict drive more and more Tigrayans to flee north Ethiopia

While war rages in much of South West Asia, across the waters of the Red Sea, another conflict has been looming in the Horn of Africa for weeks: in Ethiopia's Tigray region. These past few days, more people have started to feel the regional capital fearing an open war, as the memory of the 2020/22 still haunts the region. 

Photo: AFP

Federal and Tigrayan forces are once again massing at their shared border in northern Ethiopia, as they did in January.

The last civil war in 2022 ended with a peace agreement that was never properly implemented, and after a few months, the relations between the regional and federal authorities have become highly volatile, while Ethiopia's ties with Eritrea, which borders Tigray, also worsened.

Since October 2025, the Ethiopian government has denounced "a clear collusion between the Eritrean government and the TPLF", with a view to a new war coming.

Amid this escalation, hundreds are now fleeing Tigray, a region populated by around six million people before the war, every day by bus or plane, even if it is difficult to estimate the exact numbers.

"Right now, the situation in Tigray is very tense, we hear a lot of things, but all we want is peace," a Tigrayan named Biruk told RFI's special correspondent sent to Makelle, the regional capital.

Verbal escalations and international divisions

The federal and Tigrayan administrations blame each other for the rising tensions.

"The federal troops are advancing" from all corners of Ethiopia. Amanuel Assefa, second-in-command of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), long the dominant party in the region, told AFP last week.

"And I can say that Tigray is being encircled by federal troops. The highly likely scenario seems that there will be a conflict," he added.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed keeps saying he does not want war, as he said again in a speech unusually delivered in Tigrinya, the language of Tigray, last week. But he also said the TPLF "wasn't ready to make even a small compromise".

Since 2023, the TPLF has also been divided.

Kinfe Hadush, the chairman of the opposition Sawet party, told RFI that, “wince Abiy came to power, Tigrayans feel more vulnerable. Today, not only does the TPLF no longer represent the interests of all of Tigray, but it also has no specific agenda. The TPLF just wants to mobilise the population for war. But the people are resisting; they don't want to participate in this war.”

The TPLF is facing internal problems and its popularity is declining, many observers told RFI.

“I acknowledge that the TPLF has many problems to solve," TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told RFI. "But I can’t say that the party has the same support as it used to. If the TPLF was not accepted by all people, it would be overthrown, and another party would take power. But that’s not the case."

It's the federal government that is conspiring to dismantle the party by any means necessary, he asserted.

On the run

"There's nobody left here," Abel (a changed name to protect his identity) 
told AFP in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, as he himself tried to join other displaced people only to find buses full.

Most nights dozens of young men with backpacks and suitcases are seen at the bus station, looking for a means to leave, and hopefully reach the federal capital, Addis Ababa.

Some 700-kilometre separate Mekelle from Addis, one of the few areas of Ethiopia still at peace.

Abel is 23, and had fought for the Tigrayan Defence Forces during the civil war of 2020-22, opposing the rebels to the federal government.

The conflict killed at least 600,000 people.

He worries a renewed conflict is imminent. "It's not safe here anymore," Abel said. "I saw people die. I don't want to relive that; I don't want the war to catch up with me again."

In the whole of Tigray, people are facing shortages of basic products, from petrol to food. 

As federal authorities have cut subsidies to the region for months, even civil servants are no longer paid, and banks are running out of cash. 

 (with AFP, and partially adapted from this report in French)

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Read also my recent pieces on the situation in Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea:

*Widening rift between Eritrea and Ethiopia sparks fear of new conflict

*A year after the ceasefire in Tigray, Ethiopia is little closer to peace

*As Tigray clashes intensify, locals stockpile food and airline cancels flights

British-Iranians write to Starmer

 

Iranian British friend sent me this letter tonight:

For immediate release

Prominent British-Iranians write to Starmer urging him not to join war

Signatories include Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Aras Amiri and Nasrin Parvaz,  all former detainees in the notorious political prison of Evin

A letter signed by over 100 prominent British-Iranians is being sent today to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, urging him not to join in the Israeli and US attack on Iran.

All the signatories are opposed to the Iranian regime and several have spent time in political prisons in the country.

However their fear is that bombing Iran will not only kill innocent lives but will entrench the regime. The signatories say:

“Nobody can claim to want the end of the Islamic Republic more than we do. But attacking the country in this way will have the opposite effect. It will entrench the authoritarians and give life to the fiction that has sustained them internally for decades: that they are fighting western imperialism.”

They are highly critical of Israel’s assassination policy, despite being opponents of Iran’s authoritarians:

“When Netanyahu - a man charged with international war crimes after killing countless civilians in Gaza - assassinates Iran’s dictator that kills the man but immortalises the myth. Iranians wanted him tried and punished for his crimes, not given the martyr ending he craved.”

Signatories urge Britain and other countries to protect political prisoners in Iran’s jails from attack:

“A pro-democracy policy would protect political prisoners and ensure that Israel and the US do not bomb prisons like Evin. It is in those cells where the future democratic leaders of Iran reside.”

Signatories include Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Aras Amiri and Nasrin Parvaz all former detainees from Evin, Iran’s notorious political prison.

Amiri, a writer and art producer who spent over 3 years as a political prisoner in Evin prison in Tehran said:

“The US and Israel have no right to attack another country, their impunity is enraging. We will not allow our rightful struggle for freedom to be used to justify another war. No war brings freedom—only destruction, suffering, and the loss of our shared humanity.”

Other prominent British-Iranians include comedian and Shaparak Khorsandi and author Kamin Mohammadi. 

A full list of signatories is available at togetherforiran.org

ENDS

The Conference of the Birds, new interpretation

 

The Conference of the Birds

by Anahita Tishtar
Iranian author, eimagining Persian Classics

 

"Timeless myth. Unapologetic truth."

In this modern re-imagining of a classic Sufi tale, a group of friends gather in Tehran to celebrate the Iranian winter festival of Yalda. In the middle of an animated discussion about the fate of their country, a mysterious figure appears and tells them that a leader lives on Mount Damavand, in whom they can put all their trust.

Thus, they begin an unexpected, magical journey through Seven Valleys, crossing landscapes of love and loss, memory and resistance, facing the ghosts of history and the shadows in their own hearts. Each valley shatters an illusion. Each step forces them to decide: what are they willing to leave behind to become who they truly are?

Weaving together Persian mythology, Sufi wisdom, and the turbulent story of modern Iran, The Conference of the Birds in Tehran is a contemporary tale of friendship, courage, and hope. It is based on the classic poem by Farid ud-Din Attar (1145-1221), a master of allegory who distilled complex mystical ideas into vivid tales.

Anahita Tishtar is the pseudonym of an Iranian author now living outside her native country.

For details:
https://menmabooks.eu/conference/

War on Iran

  

I'm in charge of the update of RFI English's website this weekend. Follow the latest news, features and analysis here, with a focus on Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf, plus some African news as usual.

Insight:

MIDDLE EAST AT WAR

Refugees, migrants in Lebanon find rare sanctuary from Israeli strikes in Beirut church

When Israeli strikes began pummelling Beirut’s southern suburbs early on Monday, Sudanese refugee Ridina Muhammad and her family had no choice but to flee home on foot, eventually reaching the only shelter that would accept them: a church.

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Israel fires 'broad-scale' strikes on Tehran as war hits second week

Tehran, Iran (AFP) – Israel announced a new wave of "broad-scale" strikes on Tehran on Saturday as the escalating war in the Middle East entered its second week and oil prices surged on fears about global supply disruption.

Fearful African migrants warily work on through Gulf missile strikes

When blasts rolled across Dubai as air defences intercepted Iranian missiles overhead, Marion Kuria froze as a tremor ran through her building. Then, like countless African migrants in the Gulf, she went back to work, driven by a need for income and with few alternatives to turn to.