On the future of ECOWAS

 

 From my latest piece for RFI:

Ecowas' future in jeopardy after Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso leave group

The withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from the West African economic bloc triggered strong reactions among the group's members, with some promising to reverse the Sahel countries' decision before it is too late. But some are already questioning whether the organisation can survive the split.

If the three juntas do leave Ecowas, the economic group would lose important contributors, notably in cattle and food, as former Benin's prime minister Lionel Zinsou told RFI.

Economically, most Ecowas countries "are interdependent" according to experts. 

The trio had formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September to fight jihadist groups, which will now serve beyond a simple military framework.

Their goal seems to reinforce their Alliance, not only militarily, but also politically and economically. 

"The AES is based on a treaty for a collective security alliance, to support each other in case of aggression," international law researcher Julien Antouly told RFI. "We can imagine it evolving into an economic cooperation, a diplomatic alliance, to form a real bloc and act as a counterweight to the other Ecowas states."

Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the current leader of the junta in Burkina Faso, also told journalists the countries were thinking of leaving the common currency of West Africa, Franc CFA, considered by many as a negative and detrimental legacy of colonialism.

But according to the Timbuku Institute, it also "represents a clear regression in the security situation of the Ecowas region as a homogeneous area of collective security cooperation, where the risks and threats of inter-state conflict had been virtually eliminated.

Heads of states are currently discussing two options: an extraordinary summit in Abuja, Nigeria, maybe even this weekend, or a meeting of Ecowas heads of state at the next African Union summit in Addis Ababa mid-February. 

But for Babacar Ndiaye of the Timbuku Institute, "France and Ecowas were at the receiving end of AES diplomatic slaps in the face. So, the question is now 'who is next in the line'? Not if they can amend their relations with current West African regimes.