31/05/2024

South Africa is at a crossroad

 

New hashtagpodcast episode!! hashtag

With the ANC on the brink of losing majority, a coalition government looms - hear from South African experts:



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You can also listen on Apple Podcast and so on:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-africas-anc-on-the-brink-of-losing/id1241972991?i=1000657389333



First partial results in South Africa


With results in from 42.1% of polling stations, the ANC had garnered 42.7% of votes in Wednesday's poll.

It won 57.5% of votes in 2019.

Were that trend to hold, the ANC would likely struggle to cobble together a majority through alliances with small parties, leaving it a potential choice between three bitter rivals:

-The partial results released by the electoral commission put the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place on 23.6%.

-uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, was at 10% and eating into ANC support, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal - his home province and a traditional stronghold of the ruling party.

-The radical left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are currently the third biggest party in parliament, on 9.5%.


(reuters)


30/05/2024

Music writing (past life)


The view from the bookshop at the British Library...

Lee Scratch Perry, Afrobeat & Bristol music
- for their current black British music exhibition






29/05/2024

'Where Olive Trees Weep' (Official Trailer, June 2024)

 



World Premiere, June 6-27, 2024

"Where Olive Trees Weep" offers a searing window into the struggles and resilience of the Palestinian people under Israeli occupation. It explores themes of loss, trauma, and the quest for justice. We follow, among others, Palestinian journalist and therapist Ashira Darwish, grassroots activist Ahed Tamimi, and Israeli journalist Amira Hass. We witness Dr. Gabor Maté offering trauma-healing work for a group of women who have been tortured in Israeli prisons. Ancient landscapes bear deep scars, having witnessed the brutal reality of ancestral land confiscation, expulsions, imprisonment, home demolitions, water deprivation, and denial of basic human rights. Yet, through the veil of oppression, we catch a glimpse of resilience—deep roots that have carried the Palestinian people through decades of darkness and shattered lives. This emotional journey bares the humanity of the oppressed while grappling with the question: what makes the oppressor so ruthlessly blind to its own cruelty?

Releasing June 6-27, 2024: Online Premiere at https://whereolivetreesweep.com/event/


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South Africans voted on Wednesday, and await for results, after most disputed elections in 30 years of democracy

 

More than 27 million South Africans are registered to vote. Most went to more than 23,000 polling stations on Wednesday, in schools, sports centres... Voting ended at 9pm local time (7 GMT), and the first partial results could come later than usual, no sooner than Friday, as the outcome is expected to be tighter than ever. 



Most observers described these elections as the most competitive since the end of apartheid.

Opinion polls suggest the African National Congress (ANC) could lose its parliamentary majority after 30 years in government.

Polling stations opened around 7 am local time (5 GMT) on Wednesday, with voters queuing at some locations.

President Cyril Ramaphosa voted at the Hitekani Primary School in the vast township of Soweto near Johannesburg. 


Dissatisfaction

The elections went well, according to Goodluck Jonathan, who is leading an observer mission of the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy for Africa.

"The contest this year is quite severe," he said. "The struggle is a bit tougher and more challenging to even the bigger parties."

"Of course, the electoral commission of South Africa, we trust them and we know they will not disappoint us," he added.

During the campaign, many voters expressed disappointment and dissatisfaction over high rates of unemployment and crime, frequent power blackouts, inequality, and the level of corruption.

If the ruling ANC falls short of 50 percent of the votes, it will have to make a deal with one or more smaller parties to govern, which would be a first in South Africa.


Higher participation  

South Africa vote turnout is expected to be higher than in 2019, according to the Election Commission (IEC).

Turnout in South African elections has gradually dropped over the years as disenchantment with the ANC set in.

One key variable in this election was the new possibilities of change, drawing more voters to the polling stations.

"I arrived early before the station opened," independent election observer Maubate Kekana said, at Sandton Fire Station in an affluent business district in northern Johannesburg.

"And it was really quite a big queue outside. So really hoping that there's a big turnout during the course of the day," she added.

In the afternoon, in the Eastern Cape, five voting stations had to closed  however, due to people protesting over service delivery issues, the IEC’s electoral officer Kayakazi Magudumana said. 

“Given the state of the nation, it’s important that the country should participate in terms of determining the future,” President Ramaphosa said after voting. 

“The ANC has been saying it must renew itself," he added. "So the ANC must do that. It’s important because the ANC has a very important role to play in terms of the future of the country”. 


Tiers of democracy

Voters elect their new national parliament, which will then choose the next president, but also provincial assemblies in each of the country's nine provinces. 

The pro-business Democratic Alliance, which won the second-largest vote share in 2019, has formed an alliance with several smaller parties to try to broaden its appeal.

The party is running the rich province of the Western Cape, but hope to make a difference this year in the usually ANC strongholds of Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal

If the ANC wins the largest share of the vote, its current leader Ramaphosa is likely to remain president, but he could also face an internal challenge, if the party's performance is worse than expected.

"A new system with tiers of governance between local, provincial and national powers is coming about," Gareth Stevens, vice-chancellor of the University of Witwatersrand, told me. "It’s a challenge but also a potential for positive change.”  

The election commission (IEC) has seven days to announce final results. 

It is expected to start releasing partial results within hours of polling stations closing, but this year counting might take more time if the turnout is higher and the results tighter.

The IEC expect first partial results to be announced from Thursday.


 (with Reuters) 



Gaza ceasefire? Algeria's UN resolution

 


Algeria proposes UN action to 'stop killing in Rafah'


UNITED NATIONS, May 28 (Reuters) - Algeria on Tuesday proposed a draft U.N. Security Council resolution that demands a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, the release of all hostages held by Hamas and essentially orders Israel to "immediately halt its military offensive" in Rafah.
Algeria's U.N. Ambassador Amar Bendjama said earlier on Tuesday - after a closed-door meeting of the 15-member U.N. security body on Gaza - that the aim of the move was to "stop the killing in Rafah." Algeria is a council member for 2024/25.
The Algerian draft text, seen by Reuters, uses the strongest Security Council language - it "decides that Israel, the occupying Power, shall immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in Rafah."
It also cites a ruling by the International Court of Justice last week that ordered Israel to immediately halt its military assault on Rafah, in a landmark emergency ruling in South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide.
Diplomats said the council could vote within days.
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The move comes after an attack on Sunday set off a blaze in a camp in a designated humanitarian zone of Rafah in southern Gaza, killing at least 45 people. Israel said it had targeted Hamas militants and had not intended to harms civilians.
A council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the U.S., Britain, France, Russia or China to pass. The U.S. has so far shielded its ally Israel by vetoing three draft council resolutions on the war in Gaza.


Gaza - by the Lemkin Institute

 

The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention

"Let us be clear: Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The US is complicit in genocide. These are not political statements. They are statements that are made from knowledge and experience. Nevertheless, you do not need a PhD , a law degree, or X-ray vision to see the genocidal dimensions of Israel’s carnage in Gaza. It is clear in the behavior of the state and its military, on full display in yesterday’s horrific bombardment of a Rafah camp."



But even if there were legitimate doubts about Israel’s genocide, there is no doubt that Israel is committing atrocity crimes of the most barbaric kind. Israel must be stopped. Israel must be stopped now. We are disgusted by Western leaders, especially in the USA, Germany, and the UK. They have demonstrated not only that they don’t care one bit about genocide prevention and human rights, but also that they are willing to allow an ally to commit atrocity crimes while they offer material and diplomatic support. It is reprehensible and the individuals involved in this gaslighting campaign should be deeply ashamed. They should also be put on trial. Humanity has a choice: Either we decide that our children can all be killed whenever a superior force alleges that “terrorists” are among us, or we decide that under no circumstances will we allow these superior forces to lay waste to our world any longer. We each must choose and act accordingly. The watershed moment is now.

South Africa votes


My latest: 


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By: Melissa Chemam 


The latest survey, released last week by Afrobarometer, shows that a third of voters are still undecided – making the elections the most unpredictable in South Africa's democratic history. The ANC has never appeared so fragile since the end of white minority rule in 1994 when Mandela was elected. Polls suggest the ANC's share of the vote could fall as low as 40 percent, compared with 57.5 percent in 2019. 


End of an era


>> read here:

Divided South Africans vote in tight elections that could end ANC dominance

27/05/2024

South African elections: D-2


My newest piece, reporting from Johannesburg: 


Children receiving free breakfasts in Johannesburg, South Africa, on 23 May 2020.

24/05/2024

South Africa - Words from campaigners

 

Reporting in South Africa ahead of the 29 May 2024 general elections, I got to speak with Refiloe Ntsekhe, the Gauteng Shadow MEC of Social Development, and MP Darren Bergman, from the Democratic Alliance.

Johannesburg, 15 May 2024




Filmed by me, Melissa Chemam

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More soon...



23/05/2024

BIN-dependence Day

 


With no flights before election, UK's Rwanda migrant scheme may never get off ground

 


LONDON, May 23 (Reuters) - The controversial plan to fly thousands of asylum seekers from Britain to Rwanda may never get off the ground, after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Thursday that there would be no deportations before a national election in July.

After taking office in October 2022, Sunak made the plan to send migrants who arrived in Britain without permission to the East African nation one of his flagship policies, saying it would put an end to thousands of asylum seekers coming on small boats across the Channel.
In April, Sunak promised the first flights would take off in the next 10 to 12 weeks, after parliament finally passed a law designed to get round legal obstacles that had held up the plan for more than two years.
But, after announcing on Wednesday that Britain would go to the polls on July 4, he said there would be no departures before the vote. Instead, his message was that only by re-electing him would the Rwanda scheme - popular with some voters whose support the Conservatives need in order to win - get up and running. 

"We've started detaining people ... the flights are booked for July, airfields on standby, the escorts are ready, the caseworkers are churning through everything, so all that is happening, and if I'm re-elected as your prime minister, those flights will go to Rwanda," he told a campaign event.

The opposition Labour Party, currently about 20 points ahead in opinion polls and seen as likely to defeat Sunak's Conservatives, has promised to scrap the scheme if it wins.

It described it as a "con" and said that Sunak had called the early election before it was found out

Further legal challenges from a trade union and a charity could also have potentially derailed Sunak's timetable.

It means that the controversial plan - which has already costs hundreds of millions of pounds to set up even though no one has yet been sent to Rwanda - may never come to fruition.

"It certainly looks like the end," said Sonya Sceats, Chief Executive at Freedom from Torture, one of the many organisations and charities which have campaigned to stop the scheme.

ELECTION ISSUE

Immigration will be one of the main battlegrounds at the election, and Sunak has sought to cast the Rwanda policy as the way of dealing with an expensive issue that the public wants tackled, while accusing Labour of having no answers.

Britain is currently spending more than 3 billion pounds a year on processing asylum applications. Figures on Thursday showed annual net migration had fallen, but was still much higher than before the 2016 Brexit referendum when "taking back control" of Britain's borders was a key factor.

While critics have argued the Rwanda policy was immoral and would never work, supporters say it would smash the model of people traffickers.

Last November, the UK Supreme Court declared the policy unlawful saying Rwanda could not be considered a safe third country, prompting Sunak to sign a new treaty with the East African country and to pass new legislation to override this.

In the meantime, the numbers of asylum seekers making the dangerous journey across the Channel has risen to record numbers this year, with almost 10,000 people arriving so far, after numbers fell by a third in 2023.

The right-wing Reform Party, which has sucked support from the Conservatives, said the Rwanda scheme was fundamentally flawed and no flights would leave, while Britain's borders remained open.

Even some within Sunak's party said the public would draw similar conclusions.

"Where are the flights to Rwanda? You can only draw the conclusion that they will never leave," one Conservative lawmaker told Reuters.

Whoever wins in July, the small boats problem will remain one of their biggest challenges.

"The simple truth is that the next government will be facing an asylum system in meltdown, as the backlog of cases without a decision keeps getting bigger and bigger," said Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council.

"The Rwanda plan will go down in the history of British policymaking as an Alice in Wonderland adventure that was both absurd and inhumane."

($1 = 0.7860 pounds)

 


Reporting by Michael Holden; Editing by Alex Richardson