The Ethiopian the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, along the Blue Nile, in Guba, Benishangul-Gumuz region, is expected to produce more than 5,000 megawatts, doubling Ethiopia’s current output, part of which will be exported to neighbouring countries.
The construction of the dam began in 2011 and has raised concerns from neighbouring Egypt and Sudan over the potential reduction of water levels downstream.
Tensions remain high and Egypt, have termed the move a security risk, saying it could lead to drought downstream. A joint panel to discuss the sharing of the Blue Nile water has been put into place.
Ethiopia's pride
For Ethiopians, the prospect of increased electricity supply to enhance development is welcome news.
Ethiopia insists that the towering dam will not only benefit its more than 100 million people, but also its neighbours, and describes it as an opportunity to become Africa’s leading electricity exporter.
Ethiopian Water Minister Habtamu Itefa said his country has no intention of harming any of the neighbouring countries.
“So the way forward is: let’s work together for more investment. Let’s join hands to propose more projects that can benefit all of us, wherever they may be. This can be scaled up to Nile Basin countries—to Uganda, to Tanzania, to Rwanda, to DRC, to South Sudan, to Kenya, to Ethiopia, to Egypt as well,” he said.
"The implementation of this project has created strong regional tensions, raising fears in Sudan and Egypt about its impact on the Blue Nile's course," Tsegay Tekleselassie, an economist at Wellesley College in the United States, told RFI. "However, there is no doubt that this is a very important moment for Ethiopians."
The Renaissance Dam was built with national resources, Tekleselassie added, as to the disagreement with Egypt, many international organisations did not want to finance it. Thus, for Ethiopians, it represents a very strong symbol of the country's independence and sovereignty.
"The dam was financed from the national budget, but also through the purchase of bonds by individuals," he said. "So everyone, every worker, bought their bonds. There was also the contribution of public companies and loans from local banks. Because of its symbolic importance, people are very proud and enthusiastic about it."
The dam is also seen as a unifying force in Ethiopia, as there are many ethnic divisions.
"So the government is using it as a unifying symbol, but also to gain credibility with the people. There will certainly be a lot of emotion among Ethiopians during this inauguration."
Nearly half of Ethiopians currently lack access to electricity.
"The country has a very large population, with 130 million inhabitants," Sonia Le Gouriellec, lecturer in political science at the Catholic University of Lille, France, told RFI. "Therefore, there is a real challenge in providing electricity and achieving the country's economic ambitions. Numerous special economic zones have been opened with the aim of providing electricity to everyone."
Neighbours' ongoing concerns
Water experts in downstream Egypt say the dam has reduced the amount of water the country receives, however, and the government had to come up with short-term solutions such as reducing annual consumption and recycling irrigation water.
“Egypt was able to overcome this shortage through Egypt’s High Dam, which has a water reserve that is used to replace what was lost due to the GERD. But we can’t always rely on this reserve for water supply,” said Abbas Sharaky, a professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University.
On the side of Sudan, experts say seasonal flooding has decreased during the dam’s filling, but they warn that uncoordinated water releases could lead to sudden flooding or extended dry periods.
"What is currently debated is the absence of clear and binding rules for its management in times of water stress," Le Gouriellec told RFI. "Egypt has always had a very consistent position on this issue: All possible upstream exploitations should have a legally binding written agreement, with clear rules of operation, on how these waters will be managed over time, particularly in times of drought. And that, for the moment, is absent."
So, although the Ethiopian Prime Minister invited Sudan and Egypt to come to the inauguration, for them, that is diplomacy, oral agreements, but nothing is truly fixed.
"That bothers them a lot. And what we fear is that the conflict could be exported to other areas, for example to Somalia," she said
Egypt and Sudan's greatest fear is that in the case of a drought, the Ethiopians will not release the necessary volume of water stored by this dam.
"There is a lack of clear, binding rules on the management of the Nile's waters," Le Gouriellec added.
Ethiopia is also going through a lot of crises right, because of the aftermath of the war in Tigray (2020-2022), as well clashes in the Amhara and the Oromia regions.
"So, pro-Abu Ahmed media outlets are glorifying the moment, that's very clear", according to Le Gouriellec. "But we see a little less in the media in Tigray, in Amhara country, of a clear position on this issue, since they are truly focused on the internal challenges and the conflicts that are currently taking place."
Reassurance
Itefa said that so far, the water levels recorded downstream during the dry season were “three to four-fold what they used to get before the dam.”
“This means, at the expense of the dam we built, they can have their irrigation land. Three to four-fold, they can increase that, because we are providing more water during the dry months. It is a blessing for them,” said the Ethiopian minister.
Yacob Arsano, who teaches hydro politics in the Nile Basin at Addis Ababa University, said Ethiopia was “very careful” with the design and planning of the dam to ensure water flows downstream throughout the year.
“Egypt continues to receive the water. Ethiopia continues to send water. So that is the remaining fact and for which how to organise such a shared use of water resources depends on the two sides. All of the upstream and downstream countries need to sit down properly and soberly,” he said.
(with newswires)
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