Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa?

 

Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa too?

The war on Iran is putting almost the whole world in turmoil, and Africa is not spared. How impactful could the multi-layered conflict become for Africa? 

I asked independent expert Ladd Serwat, one of the senior analysts on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, who is closely monitoring the evolution of the war.

Protesters outside the US Consulate in Johannesburg on 7 March, 2026, during a demonstration against the ongoing war involving the USA, Israel and Iran, expressing solidarity with Iran.

-

American military bases in Djibouti and Somalia lie within range of Iranian-aligned groups, while US deployments in Nigeria and Kenya face potential exposure too. 

Israel, for its part, maintains military assets in Eritrea, vulnerable to missile attacks launched across the Red Sea, attacks that could also threaten Egypt as missiles pass through its airspace.

But some African countries also fear security risks coming from the Houthi forces in Yemen. And even more countries already suffer from the rise of oil prices, which have begun to affect food prices too.

And, last but not least, over 700,000 African workers remain in the Gulf region, with airspace closure and airlines struggling to offer support.

Ladd Serwat is a senior analyst on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent conflict monitor providing real time data and analysis for all violent conflict and protests in the world. 

He has been writing analyses on Iran’s regional reach and the security implications of the war for Africa since the beginning of the war. According to him, direct military action by Israel and the US against Iranian allies in Africa remains improbable, but not impossible.

MC: You've been following the consequences of the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. This has had huge consequences on the whole region, on West Asia but also the Red sea, notably on oil prices. But are there real security threats for Africans, especially in the Horn?

Ladd Serwat: I think we do see some potential threats around the Horn especially, the most immediate being those US and Israeli military assets around the region. The US military assets, notably in Djibouti and Somalia are well within striking distance of either. If Houthi allies to Iran ended up getting involved or of Iran's longer range missiles, it's also notable that the US has military assets just south of Somalia, in Kenya, in the north in Lamu County. They're expanding their military base there, just as of recently. The Iranian ambassador to Kenya said they're not planning to strike those assets. And then Israel also has military assets in Eritrea. So, although it may not be the most likely fallout from the conflict, these assets in the Horn would be by far the most likely to be struck.

Iran had some clear allies on the African continent before the war and some less strong partners. Everything has shifted quite strongly right now. So if we focus on the first reactions, South Africa sounded very opposed to the war, at least through the voice of its President. How do you see the reactions? Are they very polarised?  

It's interesting. I think the immediate reaction so far is seen in demonstration movements. They have been taking place in Nigeria, where a group of Shia Muslims have conducted protests in several states already, denouncing the US and Israeli aggression. So, I do expect that to continue in the coming days and weeks. This group has largely been organised through the Islamic movements in Nigeria, so we may see that also increase in other places.

Morocco has also had one of the largest and most ongoing demonstration movements across the continent against Israeli aggressions, initially against Gaza and Lebanon. But it solidified through the political opposition against the position of the Moroccan regime, which has normalised relations with Israel, largely around Friday prayers. These demonstrations have been ongoing for several years now, and I would expect this to be another place where we see opposition expressed around the continent. And as you mentioned, South Africa is another notable place where we could see more protests as well.

Then, there are also many Africans living in the Gulf states that have been attacked by Iran in retaliation to the US-Israeli war. Hundreds of thousands Africans are working in the Gulf states... It is difficult to repatriate a lot of these nationals, especially for African airlines. Some people are stranded in Saudi Arabia and in Dubai. Is it an issue that could weigh on African governments?

At ACLED, we don't monitor some of these dynamics specifically, but what we can say is that these airstrikes that have hit or threatened numerous airports around the Gulf have certainly disrupted the ability for airlines to repatriate their citizens.

Finally, Iran has sometimes been mentioned among the nations that are meddling in the war in Sudan. And there are conflicts reopening in the Horn, in Tigray, in Ethiopia, and in Eritrea. Could this war also impact those regional wars? There are also divergent interests between Somaliland, Djibouti and Somalia regarding their relations with Israel. All this has shifted since the Abraham Accords, signed by Morocco and a few other Arab countries. Do you think that the conflict in and around Iran could change the direction of these alliances?

I think some of this comes back to the million dollar question: how many military assets Iran has? what are the number of missiles that Iran has at its disposal? And how might this affect its ability to provide its various partnerships across Africa? The Sudanese military and the Sahelian states have various partnerships with Iran, have been receiving some of its weapons and are facing strong jihadist threats. So while these states could potentially pivot to other suppliers, this delay or disruption could certainly limit various regimes, and their ability to respond to various threats, especially in the war in Sudan, and against insurgencies. For all these reasons, I think that the wars in the Middle East may have fairly direct consequences to these various conflicts in Africa.

-

This interview, originally recorded for our Spotlight on Africa podcast:

>> Spotlight on Africa: Africa faces security worries as Iran conflict spreads