The United Nations is entering the final stages of choosing a successor to António Guterres, whose second five-year term as Secretary-General ends on 31 December 2026.
Under the UN Charter, the selection is led by the 15-member Security Council, which holds a series of confidential, non-binding 'straw polls' to test support for candidates. In these ballots, members vote to 'encourage', 'discourage' or express 'no opinion' on each contender.
Later rounds use colour-coded ballots to reveal whether any of the five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) intend to exercise their veto.
The first straw poll took place on 30 July, and the further rounds are expected throughout August and potentially into September or October, until a single candidate secures broad support without a permanent-member veto.
The Security Council will then formally recommend one candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which is expected to confirm the appointment before the end of the year, ahead of the new Secretary-General taking office on 1 January 2027.
Two African candidates
Two African leaders are running this year, Macky Sall, the former president of Senegal, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu.
But Carlos Lopes, a law professor in South Africa and former Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, thinks the continent’s chances of securing this prestigious post this year are pretty low.
With the first, indicative vote from late July, in Lopes' view, the candidacy of Sall was only confirmed as weak.
"The official backing provided by President Bassirou Faye came late and failed to restore institutional coherence—if I may put it that way—because Senegal remains deeply divided over his legacy and his candidacy"; Lopes told RFI this week.
The situation is different for the candidate from Uganda, who is a respected figure in UN history: as Uganda’s Permanent Representative, he was a key architect of the introduction of what is now known as the "straw poll" (the indicative vote).
"This historic contribution is not enough however to offset his late entry into the race," Lopes stated. "His political track record is rather difficult to decipher, marked by zigzags and a strained relationship with the current president. Consequently, his diplomatic prestige belongs more to history than to his current political reality."
None of them did get the support of the African Union either.
And Sall's candidacy was poorly received by Senegalese citizens since his government and himself were charged with corruption and embezzlement related to the management of Covid-19 funds and are accused of inciting electoral violence during the 2024 polls.
Africa versus Latin America
What weakens any African bid is the principle of regional rotation, according to Lopes, which clearly favors Latin America and the Caribbean this year.
This year, it is informally said that it is Latin America's turn.
"I believe Africa risks appearing to challenge a principle from which it has itself greatly benefited in the past," Lopes added. "The two African Secretaries-General, Boutros Boutros-Ghali and Kofi Annann were able to count on broad support from other regions of the Global South precisely because they respected this rotation logic."
Undermining this principle today could set a precedent that might ultimately work to Africa's own disadvantage, the expert continued.
"And I think that is precisely what is already undermining both candidacies from the outset."
Towards a first woman secretary-general
Many experts also hope to see a woman secure the post of Secretary-General for the first time. And three women candidates are in the race:
- Rebeca Grynspan, who is the current head of UNCTAD and former vice-president of Costa Rica. She came first in the initial straw poll with 10 'encourage' votes and is widely seen as the frontrunner.
- Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana's UN ambassador and former foreign minister. She finished second in the first poll with nine 'encourage' votes.
- And Michelle Bachelet, the former Chilean president and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
"The two best-placed candidates following this first vote are Rebecca Grynspan and Rodrigues-Birkett," according to Lopes.
"I believe both have had truly remarkable campaigns. So, I think there is a real chance that one of them could ultimately secure the position."
After nearly 80 years of the United Nations' existence without a woman serving as Secretary-General, many states believe the time has come to rectify this historical anomaly, he concluded.
No comments:
Post a Comment