North African affairs: Analysis on the state of Libya

 

No summer holiday for me this year, working, working, working, including this weekend.

Here is my latest piece:

Spike in violence shows Libya remains crippled by rival armed groups 

>> Analysis with the help of experts from Libya and beyond, for RFI English: 

Following a year of relative calm in Libya, fighting erupted again this week in the capital Tripoli. The UN-backed government remains powerless in more than a third of the country, whose people have not seen an election in almost a decade.

Read from site here:

https://www.rfi.fr/en/africa/20230819-spike-in-violence-shows-libya-remains-crippled-by-rival-armed-groups

While rival militias have vied for power since the overthrow of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, the current escalation indicates Libya's armed groups have consolidated their power.

The fresh spike in violence shows the government in Tripoli is still not in charge says Rhiannon Smith, an expert from the Libya Analysis thinktank.

"For the past few months, Libya has known a sort of stable instability. The political situation is still very uncertain. There are a lot of divisions and the armed groups are getting more and more powerful, but there haven't been major clashes."

Merging groups 

The rivalry has become bigger and more significant with the merger of several key groups that now have increasing power and influence, Smith adds.

These are the 444 brigade and RADA, also known as the Special Deterrence Force. 

Competition between the 444 and RADA is on the rise as RADA loses some of its influence, says Libya expert Tahani Elmogrbi.

"The 444 is more structured, military speaking, more organised, and it includes former soldiers from the Kadhafi regime. Also their head, Colonel Mahmoud Hamza, is more influential."

• Fighting between rival militias in Libya kills dozens

Gaining control of Tripoli's airport, which remains closed but is due to reopen, has been a flashpoint for the fighting.

Hamza was detained this month as he sought to travel from Tripoli’s Mitiga airport, which the RADA Special Deterrence Force claims to control, causing more clashes. He was freed on Thursday.

"It shows the issues around who controls security are still there, especially as the political situation is still up in the air," says Smith, adding that similar escalations in fighting could become more frequent.

Armed factions are progressively taking over Libya, influencing senior political appointments and the distribution of state resources, says Wolfram Lacher, a Libya specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs who co-edited a book on the past year in Libya.

Delayed political process

Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh has led Libya's unity government since February 2021.

His challenge is to get long-delayed elections back on track – but for this to happen a series of laws need to be passed and a transitional government put into place.

This is incredibly hard to do and only creates more divisions, says Smith.

• Tunisia, Libya to share responsibility for migrants stranded on border

"The government of national unity controls Tripoli and some of the western regions. In theory it is the legitimate government, but it hardly controls its own areas of influence," she told RFI.

"All of the current incumbent actors have proven that all they care about is holding on to power." 

Many observers say the international community has given up on Libya's transition. 

Regional repercussions

Insecurity in the country has had a huge impact on the region from the North African coast to the Sahel.

A lack of border controls has opened new paths for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Mediterranean, and for armed groups.

Apart from the recent deal between the European Union and Tunisia, the EU seems to have reduced its involvement in trying to solve the crisis.

Elmogrbi blames division among European leaders for inaction on Libya, especially between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Libya has also slipped down the UN's list of priorities with the war in Ukraine taking precedence, and there has been little international reaction to this week's spike in violence.

The exception was African Union Commission chair Moussa Faki Mahamat, who published a statement to say he was following the security situation in Tripoli with "great concern". 

Little Bristol visit - in pictures

 

More music writing

 

The American singer-songwriter Sixto Rodriguez went from oblivion to a career renaissance after his music developed a cult following in South Africa. He passed away on Tuesday at the age of 81.

Read on from here.

And my US to France hip-hip mini-history for RFI English:

Hip-hop turns 50: How French rap became the 'second nation' under a groove

Feeling blue... wondering about the meaning of "what we can and cannot control"...

 

 Hello there,

Feeling blue tonight, after a few nice productive days.

Since the killing of Nahel in Nanterre, so near to us, I've been feeling really poorly, and so anxious, and I've realised that most French people are still not ready to speak about it, engage, empathise or care.

Luckily, I know a lot of concerned people, people who have experienced racism, and people who have experienced it here in France.

But with the others... Silence. 

If not this advice: "Don't focus on what you can't control..."

Like we choose to "focus" on it. Again that narrative.

Do I reply to these friends, when they reached out crying that their garden has been messed up by the bad weather, or their property doesn't sell quickly enough, that they should focus on "what they can control"?

I don't, but maybe I should...

Meanwhile, no one is listening.

When the Colston statue was toppled in Bristol in 2020, during a Black Lives Matter protests, we all got to talk about the issue constantly for weeks. And not only about "blackness" or slavery, but about colonialism, history and their consequence on our daily lives. About systemic inequalities.

Here, now, in Paris, in France, what do I get? 

Denial, silence, disinterest, distance, blame... 

So I turned to my "other" best friend, YouTube.

Here is a useful short video, and advice for privileged people: Do get interested in history, and ask your friend 'how are you doing?'

Is it better to stay silent? The American white journalist ask.

No, the counselor says...

Wouldn't you have guessed? Seriously... 

Anyway, if you need guidance, here is a suggestion where to start.

Thanks for reading,
m

Counselor advises white people on talking with black friends about racism

Latest news from Niger and West Africa

 

Monday 7 August2023, 13:51 paris time

A source close to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said this Monday that an immediate military intervention to restore President Mohamed Bazoum is not being envisaged at this stage.

But a summit of its member nations' leaders is possible in coming days to decide on next steps, the source added.

Nations like Italy and Germany spoke in favour of a diplomatic solution in the trouble west African nation.

Italy urged ECOWAS to extend the deadline and seek a diplomatic solution, with a similar call from Germany.

"We support ECOWAS in its mediation efforts, which are still ongoing," a foreign ministry spokesman told a press briefing.

Neighbouring Mali said it and Burkina Faso, both suspended from West African bloc ECOWAS over their own military coups, are sending a joint official delegation to Niamey to show "solidarity (with) the people of Niger".

They have said military intervention would be tantamount to a declaration of war.

Niger's military leaders have closed the nation's airspace and on Monday its skies were clear of traffic, according to the flight tracking website Flightradar24.

Newsletter: Summer of Fires, Warmongers, and Angers

 

Latest post on my newsletter:

Summer of Fires, Warmongers, and Angers

News from a global world, and questions over the Euro-centric treatment of news

Read from here: 

https://melissa.substack.com/p/summer-of-fires-warmongers-and-angers

Dear readers, friends and passers-by,

If you’re here, you must be interested in world news beyond the western-centric agenda, and in people more than just army movements.

One of the reasons I came back to hard, daily news a year ago, and stopped writing only features and cultural analysis, was the treatment of the war in Ukraine in most global media, and its ‘black-n-white, power-obsessed, war-mongering, neo-Cold-War tone.

Since then, the words “war” and “massive attacks” seem to have become more than “back in style”, they are “trending”, they sell, and they contribute to make your stories count.

If this should be deplored, peace journalism revived, and solution studied, wars are also never treated fairly or equally around the globe.

Once more, the wars in Ethiopia, in Sudan, and in the Sahel are less important for western readers than the one involving their natural ally, the USA, and its stark enemies, Russia and China.

In my work, I try to correct these prejudices by focusing on humanitarian angles, the “rest of the world”, meaning the Global South, and in doing so not to headline on the consequences of the events in the places for France’s agenda only, or the US’s…

Here are a few recent articles to start with, and if you have questions, do write.

Thanks for reading as usual,

melissa

-

Read on from here and subscribe: 

https://melissa.substack.com/p/summer-of-fires-warmongers-and-angers

More on the situation in Niger: interview with an expert

 

Latest: 

Niger: What to expect from the military men that led the coup? 

The West African economic bloc ECOWAS gave Niger's putschists an ultimatum to bring back order before this coming Sunday. But, for now, president Bazoum is still under arrest in his palace in Niamey. Meanwhile, foreign mediations and sanctions have brought no results.  

 

While army coup leaders cling on to power, Niger still waits for president's liberation. 

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden called for his immediate release, urging the "preservation of Niger's hard-earned democracy".  

The president of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, is hosting a meeting with the regional defence chiefs in the capital Abuja between until this Friday 4 August, as the new leader of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 

Nigeria and Niger's traditional international partners such as France and the USA put sanctions in place against the putschists. 

But none of these measures have had any impact yet. 

A predictable coup 

According to Thierry Vircoulon, associate research fellow and coordinator of the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa Centre at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), ECOWAS has rarely put into actions his ambitious declarations, even in the cases of previous coups and coup attempts. 

And neither ECOWAS nor the African Union have the means to actually lead a military operation on the ground.  

He told me that "what is at stake for now is the liberation of president Bazoum, nothing much". 

According to him, the military coup could have been expected, both by Niger and France, which was assuring security operation in the country, against jihadists in particular. 

"The leader of the presidential guard knew he had a chance to be dismissed," Vircoulon said, "as the level of corruption of the military and the security forces was becoming unsustainable." 

To him, the more funds France injected in the "fight against terrorism", the more the military kept that money for themselves, creating an impossible situation for the president and his government.  

On Friday 28 July, the leader of the junta, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, who stopped several coup bids in Niger, notably in 2021 and 2022, said his action was "motivated solely" by the desire to tackle "the continuing deterioration of the security situation, as the deposed authorities failed at it. 

He promised to offer "a glimpse of a real solution for ending the crisis." 

 

Lack of democratic power 

Vircoulon adds that no political party or member of the civil society had voiced much support in favour of Bazoum.  

"This show that this president has no popular support," he told me. "He is not perceived as a representation of a democratic process but more of a transactional power, based on cronyism."  

To him, the coup shows the lack of democracy in Niger, as the coups in Mali and Burkina also revealed.  

"These countries are not democracies," he stated. 

As for the foreign support to the junta, they are to be minimised, he said. 

"It is very easy to give a few people a few hundreds of CFA to hold a Russian flag, or to repeat conspiracy theories about the former colonial ruler, France," he explained. "The military knows how to designate an enemy, as this rhetoric easily works on citizens," who are living in poverty and don't feel represented by anyone. 

It is hard to know more about what Nigeriens really want, he adds, because no opinion poll is ever conducted in the country, and members of civil society have been very quiet. 

Only a few have published a statement, like the group known as "Tournons La Page", which urged military junta in Niger to assure a "rapid return to normal constitutional order", and all parties to "not inflame tensions or fuel radical rhetoric that could lead to war." 

 

-

An edited version of this text was published by RFI English on Friday 4 August.

Following up on the situation in the Sahel

 

More soon, latest piece:

West African bloc meets to discuss Niger coup, saying a military intervention would be "last resort"

Military chiefs from the group were meeting on Wednesday to frame a response, while a delegation was in Niger for negotiations, a week after a coup shook the fragile nation.

 

 

West Africa's regional bloc ECOWAS met on Wednesday to discuss the extremely tense situation in Niger.

The Committee of Chiefs of Defence Staff (CCDS) of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is meeting in Abuja, in neighbouring Nigeria, from 2 to 4 August 2023.

Nigeria is the current chair of ECOWAS and West Africa's largest military and economic power.

The group said on Wednesday afternoon that a military intervention in junta-ruled Niger would be "the last resort".

"Military option is the very last option on the table, the last resort, but we have to prepare for the eventuality," said Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS commissioner for political affairs, peace and security.

The ECOWAS team is headed by former Nigerian leader Abdulsalami Abubakar and is in Niger to "negotiate", added Musah, speaking at the start of the three-day meeting of the grouping's military chiefs.

ECOWAS leaders still hope to reinstate Niger's president Mohamed Bazoum, 63, who won elections in 2021 in the country's first-ever peaceful transition of power.

He was overthrown on 26 July when members of his own guard detained him at the presidency.

• Niger's president held at palace as African Union slams attempted coup

The military's head, General Abdourahamane Tiani, has declared himself leader, but his claim has been condemned internationally.

• Niger's military coup widely condemned following overthrow of President Bazoum

 

Sanctions and pressure from Nigeria

Meanwhile, Nigeria cut electricity supplies to intensify pressure on the country's coup leaders on Tuesday.

A source in Niger's power company confirmed that Nigeria had cut off its electricity supply to its neighbour as a result of the sanctions.

"Since yesterday, Nigeria has disconnected the high-voltage line transporting electricity to Niger," the source at Nigelec, the country's monopoly supplier, told AFP.

Niger is considered one of the world's poorest countries, and depends on Nigeria for 70 percent of its power, buying it from the Nigerian company Mainstream, according to Nigelec.

The leaders of ECOWAS already imposed trade and financial sanctions on Sunday, and gave the coup leaders a week to reinstate Niger's democratically elected president or face potential use of force. 

Nigeria's recently elected president, Bola Tinubu, vowed to take a firm line against coups that have proliferated across the region since 2020, most of them the outcome of a bloody jihadist insurgency.

 

Support from Mali's, Guinea's and Burkina Faso's juntas  

Meanwhile, General Salifou Mody, one of the Niger coup leaders, arrived with a delegation in Mali's capital Bamako on Wednesday, as a senior Nigerien official and a Malian security official confirmed.

They did not give further details.

Junta-ruled Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso warned that any military intervention in their neighbour would be tantamount to a "declaration of war" against them.

Niger underwent four previous coups since gaining independence from France in 1960.

Bazoum himself survived two previous attempted putsches, and his considered as an ally of the current French government.

 

 -

Read more soon from my neswletter: https://melissa.substack.com/

 

Tunisie: Reshuffling in times of economic and political crisis

 

My latest article on the country: 

 

Tunisia's President replaces his Prime Minister amid stark economic difficulties

Tunisian President Kais Saied sacked his Prime Minister Najla Bouden without explanation on Tuesday night. He immediately replaced her with former central bank executive Ahmed Hachani, tasked with overcoming the "colossal" economic challenges in the North African country.

 

President Kais Saied "terminated the functions" of his Prime Minister Najla Bouden, who had been the first woman to head a government in Tunisia.

The news was disclosed by a press release and a video released by the presidency shortly before midnight.

No official explanation was given for dismissing Bouden.

 

However, several Tunisian media outlets highlighted that Saied was displeased over a number of shortages, particularly of bread in state-subsidised bakeries.

Saied immediately appointed in her place Ahmed Hachani, who until now worked at the Tunisian central bank.

He studied law at the University of Tunis, where Saied taught, but is unknown to the general public.

 

"Colossal challenges"

 

The main reason for this sudden change seems to be the very bleak state of the country's economy.

During the short ceremony, the president stressed that "there are colossal challenges that we must overcome with a solid and strong will, in order to protect our homeland, our state and social peace".

In recent days, the government held several meetings, including some with the president and ministers, over the problem of shortages of subsidised bread in several regions.

 

Saied recently said "bread is a red line for Tunisians", and, according to media, he fears a repeat of the bread riots that left 150 dead in 1984 under Habib Bourguiba, the first post- independence leader of Tunisia.

The country has been facing sporadic shortages of flour, semolina, sugar, coffee and cooking oil for months, linked, according to economists, to the requirement that suppliers be paid in advance, which Tunisia has had great difficulty doing.

 

Needing international support 

 

The North African country is also saddled with a crippling public wage bill from a civil service that employs 680,000 of its 12 million citizens.

It is struggling with debt of around 80 percent of GDP and seeking foreign aid.

Last October, Tunisia reached a tentative deal for a $1.9 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that would require the country to undertake a "comprehensive economic reform programme".

 

The IMF has also called for legislation to restructure more than 100 state-owned firms, holding monopolies over many parts of the economy and, in many cases, heavily indebted.

• As West fears Tunisia collapse, hopes of IMF bailout fade

But hopes of securing the IMF bailout appear slim as President Kais Saied has repeatedly rejected "foreign diktats that will lead to more poverty".

Besides being heavily indebted, growth is around two percent while poverty levels are rising and unemployment very high at 15 percent.

 

Political crisis

 

These serious economic difficulties in Tunisia are compounded by a political crisis it's been going through for two years.

Bouden had been appointed by Saied on 11 October 2021, after the president granted himself sweeping powers on 25 July by dismissing his then-prime minister and suspending parliament.

He also amended the constitution after a referendum in the summer of 2022, greatly reducing the powers of parliament, and granting the president's office unlimited powers.

Since his power grab, Saied has ruled by decree.

 A new assembly took office in the spring of 2023 following legislative elections at the end of 2022, but these were boycotted by the opposition parties and shunned by voters with a turnout rate of around 10 percent.

• Tunisians vote for hamstrung parliament in poll shunned by opposition

The clampdown didn't stop there.

Since last February, about 20 opposition, media and business figures have been imprisoned in a wave of arrests that included Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party and one of the president's highest-profile critics.

 

Ennahdha had dominated coalitions from the 2011 democratic revolution that culminated in the downfall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and kicked off the Arab Spring uprisings across the region.

They were all accused of "plotting against state security", Saied personally calling them "terrorists".

Amnesty International has labelled in a recent report the roundup a "politically motivated witch hunt".

 

-

Read more about Tunisia on RFI English:

https://www.rfi.fr/en/tag/tunisia/

On the road... via London, with Carrie Mae Weems

Little stop by the Barbican centre, one of my favourite places in the world... 

ART & DESIGN

Carrie Mae Weems: Reflections for Now

Explore the work and career of Carrie Mae Weems in this first major UK exhibition dedicated to one of the most influential American artists working today.