How many died?

 

How many died?

• In the Democratic Republic of Congo, since the 1990s, estimates suggest over 5 million people have died due to conflict-related causes — the deadliest war since WWII. Most deaths were from preventable disease, hunger, and displacement caused by fighting.

• Since 2022, the resurgence of violence in eastern DRC (North Kivu, Ituri, etc.) has displaced more than 7 million people, many living in horrific conditions. Hundreds of thousands are exposed to mass rape, exploitation, and disease.

• In Sudan, since the war began in April 2023, over 15,000 people are estimated to have been killed, though the real number is likely far higher due to restricted access. Over 10 million people have been displaced — the largest displacement crisis in the world right now. Starvation is being used as a weapon.

And still — almost no visibility. Few headlines. Fewer influencers.

-

My latest on the conflict in the DRC, for RFI:

DR Congo and M23 rebels say they will sign peace deal mid-August

Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group pledged to sign a peace agreement by 18 August, at a ceremony in Doha on Saturday, a sign of progress even as outstanding details need to be negotiated. Analysts now reflect on the chances of success for this deal to bring lasting peace.

Since February, the front in eastern DRC has stabilised, but violence has intensified between the M23 and a myriad of pro-Kinshasa militias waging guerrilla warfare in eastern Congo, a region bordering Rwanda that is rich in minerals and has been plagued by conflict for more than 30 years.

Representatives of both sides signed a declaration of principles laying out the new timeline on Saturday (19 July), at the ceremony that followed months of Qatar's mediation, after talks began in April.

Negotiations for the final peace agreement are set to restart no later than 8 August, according to the declaration, which would give the parties ten days to finalise a deal if they stick to their new 18 August deadline for signing.

"We are confident and we are hopeful," Massad Boulos, Trump's senior adviser for Africa, told Reuters after Saturday's ceremony in Doha, adding that Tshisekedi and Kagame "have both committed to resolving this."

Vagueness

Jacquemain Shabani, Congolese Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the Interior, Security, Decentralisation and Customary Affairs, followed the discussions in Doha on behalf of the government. He told RFI that the details of the deal still need to be spelled out and outlined in the peace agreement, which will be signed once again in Doha on 18 August.

"We will have to wait a few more days to see the signing of this final document, which will define and determine the conditions under which, notably, the various prisoners on both sides can be released," he added.

He also insisted on the need for political dialogue between Kinshasa and the M23.

The United States has also hosted separate talks between the governments of Congo and Rwanda, and has exerted pressure to finalise a durable peace deal in Congo. President Donald Trump has made clear he hopes that would spur Western investment into a country rich in tantalum, gold, cobalt, copper, lithium and other minerals.

 According to Fred Bauma, executive director of the Congolese Institute for Research on Governance, Politics, and Violence, Ebuteli, "this is a statement of principle that is not yet the Peace Agreement, but it opens the way to negotiations to reach a peace agreement that we hope will be reached soon."

Bauma said that the ambition of this peace agreement is precisely to bring about an end to the conflict in eastern DRC and the withdrawal of the M23 from the occupied areas.

"I think that what is different compared to the various previous initiatives is the leading role of international actors like the United States and Qatar, who are bringing all their weight to bear to ensure that the peace agreement can succeed," the expert added.

Potential disagreements

Sources in both delegations have however expressed frustration with the pace of negotiations in Doha and the lack of progress on confidence-building measures, including the release of M23 members held by Congo and the re-opening of banks in rebel-held territory.

The declaration of principles does not resolve those issues, instead committing the parties to "creating the necessary conditions" to eventually do so.

It also does not address bigger questions concerning the possible Rwandan and M23 withdrawals from eastern DRC. It only says DRC and M23 agree state authority should be restored "on all national territories" as part of an eventual peace agreement but does not give details.

"We saw immediately, the day after the signing of this agreement in principle, that a new controversy arose over the interpretation of what territorial integrity or the restoration of state authority is," Bauma told RFI.

He thinks that, on both sides, It won't be easy to implement this agreement, and that it would take a lot of pressure.

"I think the facilitators, Qatar and the United States, and also all the other countries that have influence in the region, must ensure that we avoid a further escalation because that would mean a return to and perhaps the failure of these negotiations, which will not promote the immediate return of peace to the region."

According to Martin Ziakwau, Catholic University of Congo, "the issue isn't the signing of the declaration of principles. The real issue is the subject of direct discussions between the government and the M23."

"The most important thing is not to reach the end of a military saga, but to create the conditions for lasting peace," he told RFI.