The risky calculations behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland
Since its declaration of independence in 1991, Somaliland had not been formally recognised by any country, until Israel did so on 27 December 2025.
The move looked unexpected to many, as the the breaking-away region of Somalia had tried to gain recognition unsuccessfully for decades.
Authorities in Somalia, which are entirely in favour of safeguarding the integrity of their territory, have decried Israel's decision and rallied the African Union and other African nations for support.
> Read also our piece on RFI: UN ambassadors condemn Israel's recognition of Somaliland
But the two regions are moving forward with their decisions, and Israel's Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar, visited Somaliland on Tuesday (7 January), ten days after Israel formally recognised the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent state.
Saar met Somaliland's President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi in the capital Hargeisa and discussed ways to enhance bilateral ties.
And Somaliland’s president will head thus to Jerusalem mid-January.
Somalia's Foreign Ministry denounced an "unauthorised incursion" into the country. It criticised Gideon Saar's visit as "a serious violation of Somalia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political unity", and "unacceptable interference in the country's internal affairs," stating that Somaliland is "an inalienable part of internationally recognised Somali territory."
So, why is this decision creating so much worry? and what are Israel's reasoning with this new partnership?
Torn history
Somaliland lies in northwestern Somalia, in the Horn of Africa, along the strategic Gulf of Aden in the Red Sea, and it shares land borders with Ethiopia, Djibouti and the rest of Somalia.
Up until the 18th century, the Somali region consisted of independent sultanates and clan-based societies, with limited and indirect Ottoman influence along parts of the coast. European powers started establishing ports and trade agreements in the region too.
Following the Berlin Conference of 1884–85 and what is known as the 'Scramble for Africa', France, Britain and Italy moved to formalise their presence in the Horn of Africa.
Britain declared a protectorate over north-western Somalia in 1887 (which became today's Somaliland), while Italy established control over southern and north-eastern Somalia from 1889, through a series of treaties with local rulers. France's influence remained around the Gulf of Tadjoura, which is now Djibouti.
For the first part of the twentieth century, Somaliland remained a British protectorate, while the Somalia we know today was colonised further by Italy.
Somali nationalist movements grew in the 1940s and 50s, and Somaliland gained independence on 26 June 1960, followed by Italian Somalia on 1 July.
But over the years, Somalilanders had kept their English-speaking habits and different administrative rules. And with the increasingly authoritarian regime of Siad Barre, Somalilanders were victims of repression.
With the fall of Barre in 1991 and the begining of a civil war, the region declared independence.
Somaliland has since sought formal recognition as an independent state for decades, signing bilateral agreements with various foreign governments on investments and security coordination.
Strategic location
Since 1991, Somaliland has been governing itself independently, avoiding war, and organising democratic elections.
Since the election of new President Abdullahi in December 2024, the breaking-away region has launched a more obvious foreign policy to pursue recognition from the international community, especially towards Donald Trump.
> Read also my piece: With a new president, Somaliland seeks international recognition
This is when Israel started looking at a partnership, including recognition.
"Due to its strategic location on the shores of the Gulf of Aden, the territory of today’s Somaliland has drawn geopolitical attention from great powers for a long time," Nasir M. Ali, researcher on the Horn of Africa and the former director of Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Hargeisa, Somaliland wrote in a recent report.
Analysts believe that an alliance between Israel and Somaliland is particularly advantageous for Israel because of its strategic position on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, facing the Houthi rebels of Yemen, supported by Iran, who have carried out numerous attacks against Israel since the beginning of the war in Gaza.
Ali told me that Somalilanders are overwhelmingly in favour if pursing the parnership. "They've been waiting for recognition for decades, and now is the time," he said. "The strategic reasons are strong, and others in the Muslim world have already reallied Israel."
Unity at stake
Abdullahi had suggested last month that Somaliland join the Abraham Accords, a deal brokered by the Trump administration in 2020 that saw Gulf states, the United Arab Emirates — a close partner of Somaliland, Bahrain then Morocco establish ties with Israel.
Israel's decision to recognise Somaliland also follows two years of increasingly strained ties with many of its closest partners over its war in Gaza and policies in the West Bank.
"Somaliland is a fully operational country founded on the principles of international law," the Israeli foreign minister said. "Somaliland is – and has been – a stable democracy for almost 35 years," and "it is pro-Western and a friend of Israel.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would pursue cooperation with Somaliland in agriculture, health, technology, and the economy, and has invited Somaliland's president to visit Israel. The latter is invited to come to Jerusalem next from week.
Israel's government has also advocated for what officials describe as voluntary Palestinian migration from Gaza. But Somaliland has denied that the Israel recognition agreement allows it to establish military bases, or to resettle Palestinians from Gaza in the region.
Some analysts argue that Israel's support could however harm Somaliland's hopes for global recognition.
After Sarr's visit to Hargeisa, the African Union has called for the “immediate revocation” of Israel’s official recognition of Somaliland, calling for respect of Somalia's territorial integrity.
The European Union, China, Egypt and Saudi Arabia also condemned the recognition, fearing growing insecurity in the Red Sea.
"Israel's recognition could be seen as not the best place to start, among African and Muslim partners of Somaliland," Ali reckons, "but it could also seduce countries like Ethiopia and other potential partners."
This could definitely be a game-changer for Somalia, which has a lot to lose, for East Africa and for the whole region, Ali concludes.
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