My latest, for RFI English:
The final tally gave Ramaphosa's ruling African National Congress (ANC) 159 seats in the 400-seat National Assembly, its lowest score in a general election.
The vote share of the party of late liberation leader Nelson Mandela slumped to just over 40 percent from the 57 percent it had won in 2019.
The centre-right opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) won 87 seats, Zuma's MK 58 and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) of leftist firebrand Julius Malema 39, followed by several minority outfits.
The new parliament is to meet within two weeks and its first task will be to elect a president to form a new government.
But, with no outright winner for the first time since the advent of South Africa's post-apartheid democracy, the ANC will first need to seek outside support to secure Ramaphosa's re-election.
Zuma kingmaker?
Zuma is still barred from standing for parliament because of a conviction for contempt of court. So he is unlikely to be a coalition partner, analysts say.But the former President and ANC member looks like the biggest winner in South Africa's election, as he's the one most able to shift the ANC's decisions.
And one of Zuma's conditions to discuss forming a coalition with the ANC is the departure of Ramaphosa. Zuma still says that the ANC under Ramaphosa is not the real ANC, researcher Harlan Cloete, from the University of Free State, told RFI. He claims he had to form his own movement because of the "political orientations that Ramaphosa gave to the ANC."His supporters keep saying they will not consider joining a coalition unless there is an agreement to pardon Zuma for his conviction.
Zuma was forced out of office as the president and ANC leader in 2018 due to multiple corruption allegations, was jailed for contempt of court in 2021, events which triggered riots where more than 350 people died.The MK party's demands appear key as it is also on course to unseat the ANC by a landslide in the populous province of KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's home region.
'Doomsday Coalition'
The ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula says the party is having "exploratory discussions at the moment: "We talk to everybody".
The ANC hopes to achieve a deal "as fast as we can", according to him.
Though the DA is the bigger opposition winner in numbers, it is highly unlikely to find common ground for a coalition with the ANC.
The DA's white leader John Steenhuisen says he is keen to work with the ANC, but if only to head off what he calls the "Doomsday Coalition" between the ruling party, Zuma's MK and Malema's EFF.
He described pledges in the MK and EFF manifestos to nationalise privately owned land and undermine judicial independence as "an all-out assault on the constitution of our country".
"We urge all others who love our constitution and all it represents to set aside petty politics and narrow sectarian interests and join hands now," Steenhuisen said."I don't believe that they set out to be a party of white privilege," she said. "But they end up being that."
An accusation the DA has repeatedly rejected.
For all these reasons, Malema and his EFF appear as the safest partner for the ANC for now.
Malema has actually scored points by announcing first that he was open for discussions.
“Julius Malema has achieved a masterstroke by taking the first step, like an opening in chess, in the sense that he is opening a path that distances himself from the MK party," political scientist Ongama Mtimka, from Nelson Mandela Bay University, told RFI.
Malema, who like Zuma used to be part of the ANC, also says he doesn't care whoends up being president, Cyril Ramaphosa or anyone else.
He only told his voters, "we do not need to agree on everything before the fourteen-day deadline to form a coalition.”
For all these reasons, analysts thinks he is positioning himself cleverly, and could be the ANC's strongest ally for now.
(with newswires)
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