The New War in the Middle East: International, Regional, and Domestic Dimensions

 

The New War in the Middle East: International, Regional, and Domestic Dimensions

To provide a rigorous and multifaceted analysis of The New War in the Middle East: International, Regional, and Domestic Dimensions, CERI Sciences Po is organising a dedicated event structured around 2 complementary conferences.

The new war in the Middle East, triggered on 28 February by the Israeli-American attack on Iran, has once again plunged the region, as well as the international system more broadly, into a period of significant uncertainty. 

To provide a rigorous and multifaceted analysis of this major development, while maintaining the necessary analytical distance, CERI and MENA Programme are organising an event structured around two complementary conferences. 

The first, to be held on 30 March, will examine the international dimensions of the conflict and its global implications. The second, on 31 March, will focus on the regional dimensions of the conflict as well as its repercussions for Iranian domestic politics. 

Taken together, these two sessions trace a progression from the global level to regional configurations and domestic political consequences, bringing together scholars with diverse areas of expertise and perspectives.

New War in the Middle East: International, Regional, and Domestic

March 30th 17h30-19h30 The New War in the Middle East : International Dimensions > room Leroy Beaulieu-Sorel, 27 rue Saint-Guillaume, 75007 Paris Moderator : Victor Mallet is a senior journalist at the Financial Times. A career foreign correspondent, he has reported for over three decades from Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, including as the Financial Times's Middle East correspondent, where he covered the 1990–91 Gulf War and was notably present in Kuwait during the Iraqi invasion in August 1990. He is also the author of several books, most recently Far-Right France: Le Pen, Bardella and the Future of Europe (Hurst, 2026). Speakers : Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "How about: Perspectives from Africa on the new Middle East war?" Nicole Grajewski , Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "US-Israel strategic alignments and Russian perspectives" Christophe Jaffrelot, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "Can India be equidistant from Israel, Iran, Russia, and the US? " Stéphanie Balme, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "China’s Strategic Positions" Benoît Pélopidas, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "Counterproliferation by force, past and future"  - 31 mars 17h-19h La nouvelle guerre au Moyen-Orient : perspectives régionales et internes à la politique iranienne Amphithéâtre Chapsal, 27 rue Saint-Guillaume, 75007 Paris Présidence :  Aghiad Ghanem, Sciences Po, PSIA Bernard Hourcade, Centre de Recherche sur le Monde iranien (CeRMI) - CNRS : "L'Iran après la guerre : chaos, espoirs de changement ou nouveau despotisme?" Samy Cohen, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "Israël,  une guerre pourquoi faire?" Laurence Louër, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "Les monarchies du Golfe au piège de l’unilatéralisme israélo-américain" Laurent Bonnefoy, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS: "Yémen : d'un conflit l'autre ?" Eberhard Kienle, Sciences Po - CERI / CNRS : "Au-delà du Hizb Allah: le Liban et la Syrie dans la guerre"

'YOU CANNOT ERASE US'

 

NEW SINGLE: EMEL ft. TÄRA 

'YOU CANNOT ERASE US'

It is the story of an Ivorian, a Palestinian, and a Tunisian immigrant. Separated by different borders, they carry the same plea, the plea of the uprooted heart. 

They share the coldness of exclusion, the violence of racism and the weight of ignorance and hatred. In a world fueled by xenophobia and fear of the other, Only music can unite, can resist, A space where voices meet, where dignity is found again. 

Sung in Arabic, Italian, and English, and filmed in the most visceral, human corner of Cairo, You Cannot Erase Us is a cri du cœur, the empathy statement with urgent trap beats we all need to feel again.

Solidarité...

 

With the people of Palestine, Iran, Lebanon, Sudan, Syria, the DR Congo... and all the victims of unjust, brutal wars, here marching in Paris on Sat. 28 March 2026:

Senegal's former President, Macky Sall, won't be a candidate for UN Secretary-General

 

Senegal: The AU refuses to support former President Macky Sall's candidacy for UN Secretary-General

Presented to the 55 member states of the continental organisation on Friday, 27 March, the draft decision was rejected by about twenty of them – including Senegal, whose current government in Dakar maintains strained relations with Macky Sall. 

The initiative had been launched by Burundi, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the AU.

According to a note from the AU Commission consulted by my RFI colleague in Dakar, 20 states – including Senegal – vetoed this initiative, thus giving the upper hand to Dakar, which had been shown to be opposed to it.

In a letter from the Permanent Mission of Senegal to the AU, Senegalese authorities indicated their refusal to support Macky Sall's candidacy to replace António Guterres, whose term as head of the United Nations will end at the end of the year.

The Senegalese government has, “at no stage, endorsed this candidacy and has not been associated with the initiative.” The country therefore cannot be considered “a stakeholder in the said process” – launched by Burundi, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the AU – the letter states.

And 19 other member countries of the continental organisation, including Tunisia, South Africa and Nigeria, did the same.

Abuja explained that a nomination of Macky Sall to the post of secretary general would violate the principle of rotation which stipulates that it is the turn of Latin America and the Caribbean to give one to the UN.

The draft decision supporting this candidacy could not be accepted thus, as it did not meet the criteria of the so-called "tacit approval" procedure under which it had been submitted to the Member States – a procedure according to which the text should not raise objections from more than one third of the 55 countries belonging to the organisation.

The lack of support from the African Union for Macky Sall's candidacy is good news for the current government in power in Dakar, as the authorities elected two years ago still maintain cold relations with the former president. They accuse him of having indebted the country and of being responsible for the violent repression of political demonstrations, which have caused at least 65 deaths between 2021 and 2024.

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28 March: Solidarity march

 

6 million displaced

 

Israel has displaced at least 6 million across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, according to The New Arab.

This figure, covering the last two and half years, is the equivalent to the population of the whole of Denmark or Singapore.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has stated that 2.1 million in Gaza has been displaced since Israel launched its brutal military campaign and genocide in October 2023.

Over the past month alone, 3.2 million Iranians - and counting - have been internally displaced due to the US-Israel war on the country, according to the UN.

Meanwhile in Lebanon, over 1 million - an estimated 20% of the country's total population - have been subject to Israel's forced displacement orders.

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France disinvites South Africa at the coming G7 summit... because of Trump?

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa says he has been disinvited by France to the Group of Seven (G7) summit in the French town of Evian in June.. ..because of US pressure. 

“We’ve learnt that due to sustained pressure, France has had to withdraw its invitation to South Africa to attend the G7 meeting,” Vincent Magwenya, spokesperson to the president, told AFP.

“We are told that the Americans threatened to boycott the G7 if South Africa was invited,” he said.

During the G20 in South Africa, French President Emmanuel Macron had personally invited Ramaphosa to take part in the G7, Pretoria recalled. The Group of industrialised nations often widens its work to invite other countries.

South Africa has already been excluded from the G20 in January. 

According to RFI's Frenchspeaking correspondent in Johannesburg, France says it has decided to invite Kenya instead of South Africa, as they are co-organising a summit together in May.

But it sounds like an excuse, and it's scary to see Macron bend to Trump! 

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South Africa has faced months of pressure from US President Donald Trump on issues from trade to race relations.

Trump has clashed repeatedly with the South African government, hitting the country with high tariffs, berating Ramaphosa in the Oval Office over discredited claims of a “white genocide” and boycotting a G20 summit in Johannesburg in November.

Trump ambushed South Africa's Ramaphosa over 'genocide' accusation as soon as they met in Washington...

I reported on this all of next year, see some articles here:

Spotlight on Africa podcast - Ramaphosa in Washington: can South Africa - US ties be saved?

South Africa hits back at US over ‘flawed’ rights report and land grab claims

South Africa confirms temporary withdrawal from G20, as US takes the helm

South Africa closes G20 year framed as ‘presidency for all of Africa

Why the new US ambassador to South Africa could strain relations even further

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“Notwithstanding all of these developments, South Africa remains committed to engage constructively with the US,” the spokesperson to the president also said.

“The diplomatic relationship between USA and South Africa predate the Trump administration and they will outlive the current White House term of office,” he added.

US is 'normalising' the erasure of Black history, Ghana's president says

 

Ghana's president, in New York, says US is 'normalising' the erasure of Black history

March 24 (Reuters) - Ghanaian President John Dramani Mahama, ​speaking in New York on Tuesday, criticised the U.S. administration for what he described as normalising the ‌erasure of Black history, warning that such policies could have ripple effects elsewhere.

Since his return to power, U.S. President Donald Trump has targeted U.S. cultural and historical institutions - from museums to monuments to national parks - to remove what he calls "anti-American" ideology.

His declarations and executive orders ​have led to the dismantling of slavery exhibits, the restoration of Confederate statues and other moves that civil ​rights advocates say could reverse decades of social progress.

"These policies are becoming a template for ⁠other governments as well as some private institutions," Mahama said, speaking at an event on slavery reparations at the ​United Nations. "At the very least, they are slowly normalising the erasure."

Mahama said that in the U.S., Black history courses were ​being removed from school curricula, institutions were being mandated to stop teaching the "truth of slavery, segregation and racism," and books addressing these subjects were increasingly banned.

Asked about Mahama's remarks, a White House spokesperson said Trump had done more for Black Americans than any other president, ​and that he was proud to have received "historic support" from the Black community in the 2024 election.

"He is working ​around the clock to deliver for them and make our country greater than ever before," the spokesperson said.

GHANA TO PROPOSE SLAVERY RESOLUTION ‌AT ⁠U.N.

Mahama, who last year announced a deal to accept West Africans deported by the U.S., previously criticized Trump for his false claims of white genocide and land seizures in South Africa, calling them an insult to Africans.

Mahama is in New York to propose a resolution at the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday to recognize transatlantic slavery as the "gravest crime in the ​history of humankind" and to ​call for reparations.

The West African ⁠nation has been a leading advocate for reparations, a cause that has gained significant momentum in recent years, even as a growing backlash has emerged.

Several Western leaders have opposed even discussing ​the subject, with critics arguing that today's states and institutions should not be held ​responsible for historical ⁠wrongs.

The draft resolution, seen by Reuters, urges member states to engage in dialogue on reparations, including issuing formal apologies, returning stolen artifacts, providing financial compensation, and ensuring guarantees of non-repetition.

The resolution has been backed by the nations of the African Union ⁠and the ​Caribbean Community, as well as countries like Brazil.

Ghana's foreign minister, Samuel Ablakwa, ​said the European Union and the U.S. had already communicated they would not back the resolution.

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Tamino - Babylon (Live in Cairo, Egypt)

 

Really beautiful...

20 March

 

Today is Eid Al Fitr. 

Eid Mubarak. 

It’s also Nowruz, the Persian celebration of the new year and beginning of spring.  

Sorry people for the state of western regimes… war and oil obsessed…

It's the Sping Equinox, and here in Europe too we should be celebrating our gorgeous nature blooms and togetherness.

Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa?

 

Could the war on Iran impact security and conflicts in Africa too?

The war on Iran is putting almost the whole world in turmoil, and Africa is not spared. How impactful could the multi-layered conflict become for Africa? 

I asked independent expert Ladd Serwat, one of the senior analysts on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, who is closely monitoring the evolution of the war.

Protesters outside the US Consulate in Johannesburg on 7 March, 2026, during a demonstration against the ongoing war involving the USA, Israel and Iran, expressing solidarity with Iran.

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American military bases in Djibouti and Somalia lie within range of Iranian-aligned groups, while US deployments in Nigeria and Kenya face potential exposure too. 

Israel, for its part, maintains military assets in Eritrea, vulnerable to missile attacks launched across the Red Sea, attacks that could also threaten Egypt as missiles pass through its airspace.

But some African countries also fear security risks coming from the Houthi forces in Yemen. And even more countries already suffer from the rise of oil prices, which have begun to affect food prices too.

And, last but not least, over 700,000 African workers remain in the Gulf region, with airspace closure and airlines struggling to offer support.

Ladd Serwat is a senior analyst on Africa at ACLED, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an independent conflict monitor providing real time data and analysis for all violent conflict and protests in the world. 

He has been writing analyses on Iran’s regional reach and the security implications of the war for Africa since the beginning of the war. According to him, direct military action by Israel and the US against Iranian allies in Africa remains improbable, but not impossible.

MC: You've been following the consequences of the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel. This has had huge consequences on the whole region, on West Asia but also the Red sea, notably on oil prices. But are there real security threats for Africans, especially in the Horn?

Ladd Serwat: I think we do see some potential threats around the Horn especially, the most immediate being those US and Israeli military assets around the region. The US military assets, notably in Djibouti and Somalia are well within striking distance of either. If Houthi allies to Iran ended up getting involved or of Iran's longer range missiles, it's also notable that the US has military assets just south of Somalia, in Kenya, in the north in Lamu County. They're expanding their military base there, just as of recently. The Iranian ambassador to Kenya said they're not planning to strike those assets. And then Israel also has military assets in Eritrea. So, although it may not be the most likely fallout from the conflict, these assets in the Horn would be by far the most likely to be struck.

Iran had some clear allies on the African continent before the war and some less strong partners. Everything has shifted quite strongly right now. So if we focus on the first reactions, South Africa sounded very opposed to the war, at least through the voice of its President. How do you see the reactions? Are they very polarised?  

It's interesting. I think the immediate reaction so far is seen in demonstration movements. They have been taking place in Nigeria, where a group of Shia Muslims have conducted protests in several states already, denouncing the US and Israeli aggression. So, I do expect that to continue in the coming days and weeks. This group has largely been organised through the Islamic movements in Nigeria, so we may see that also increase in other places.

Morocco has also had one of the largest and most ongoing demonstration movements across the continent against Israeli aggressions, initially against Gaza and Lebanon. But it solidified through the political opposition against the position of the Moroccan regime, which has normalised relations with Israel, largely around Friday prayers. These demonstrations have been ongoing for several years now, and I would expect this to be another place where we see opposition expressed around the continent. And as you mentioned, South Africa is another notable place where we could see more protests as well.

Then, there are also many Africans living in the Gulf states that have been attacked by Iran in retaliation to the US-Israeli war. Hundreds of thousands Africans are working in the Gulf states... It is difficult to repatriate a lot of these nationals, especially for African airlines. Some people are stranded in Saudi Arabia and in Dubai. Is it an issue that could weigh on African governments?

At ACLED, we don't monitor some of these dynamics specifically, but what we can say is that these airstrikes that have hit or threatened numerous airports around the Gulf have certainly disrupted the ability for airlines to repatriate their citizens.

Finally, Iran has sometimes been mentioned among the nations that are meddling in the war in Sudan. And there are conflicts reopening in the Horn, in Tigray, in Ethiopia, and in Eritrea. Could this war also impact those regional wars? There are also divergent interests between Somaliland, Djibouti and Somalia regarding their relations with Israel. All this has shifted since the Abraham Accords, signed by Morocco and a few other Arab countries. Do you think that the conflict in and around Iran could change the direction of these alliances?

I think some of this comes back to the million dollar question: how many military assets Iran has? what are the number of missiles that Iran has at its disposal? And how might this affect its ability to provide its various partnerships across Africa? The Sudanese military and the Sahelian states have various partnerships with Iran, have been receiving some of its weapons and are facing strong jihadist threats. So while these states could potentially pivot to other suppliers, this delay or disruption could certainly limit various regimes, and their ability to respond to various threats, especially in the war in Sudan, and against insurgencies. For all these reasons, I think that the wars in the Middle East may have fairly direct consequences to these various conflicts in Africa.

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This interview, originally recorded for our Spotlight on Africa podcast:

>> Spotlight on Africa: Africa faces security worries as Iran conflict spreads

New podcast episode: Iran & Africa

 

Spotlight on Africa

Spotlight on Africa: Africa faces security worries as Iran conflict spreads

US and Israeli attacks on Iran are raising concerns across Africa, from security risks in the Horn of Africa to economic pressures and fears for migrant workers in the Gulf. They also come as West African countries step up cooperation against spreading jihadist violence. In this week’s Spotlight on Africa podcast, we speak to Nigeria’s presidential adviser Sunday Dare and Africa analyst Heni Nsaibia about the risks. 

>> Listen here: https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/spotlight-on-africa/20260317-spotlight-on-africa-africa-faces-security-worries-as-iran-conflict-spreads

As the conflict spreads across West Asia, the Gulf and the Red Sea, worries are growing about how it could affect the African continent.

American military bases in Djibouti and Somalia lie within range of Iranian-aligned groups, while US deployments in Nigeria and Kenya further extend potential exposure.

Israel also maintains military assets in Eritrea, vulnerable to missile attacks launched across the Red Sea. Such attacks could also threaten Egypt if missiles pass through its airspace.

Some African countries fear security risks from the United States, Israel, Iran or Houthi forces in Yemen. Others are already suffering from rising oil prices, related food insecurity and concerns for migrant workers.

More than 700,000 African workers remain in Gulf states as missile strikes continue in the region.

Ladd Serwat, an analyst on Africa at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED – a conflict data organisation), writes regular analyses on Iran’s regional reach and the security implications of the war for Africa.

He said direct military action by Israel or the United States against Iranian allies in Africa remains unlikely, but cannot be ruled out.

Nigeria and jihadist insecurity

Meanwhile, West Africa is facing a rise in jihadist attacks in the Sahel.

Violence has increasingly spread south to coastal countries such as Benin, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire, prompting governments to seek stronger cross-border cooperation.

Authorities in Benin and Nigeria announced this week plans for a joint security operation along their shared border.

The move aims to combat militant groups operating in the area.

In the podcast, Sunday Dare, senior adviser to Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, discusses security challenges facing the country, including the Islamist insurgency and the need for regional and international cooperation.

And Heni Nsaibia, ACLED’s West Africa senior analyst, who's done extensive research on jihadism, explores the relevance of this partnership.

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Episode mixed by Erwan Rome.

Spotlight on Africa is produced by Radio France Internationale's English language service.

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>> Listen here: https://www.rfi.fr/en/podcasts/spotlight-on-africa/20260317-spotlight-on-africa-africa-faces-security-worries-as-iran-conflict-spreads

France votes

 

Local elections were taking place this Sunday throughout France, as the first round of polls, the second one being in a week. 

It is considered as a key vote, as it's the last one before next year's presidential elections, which always get more attention here, and will see Emmanuel Macron leave his seat after two mandates, that already end in a lot of turmoil, with the worst budget/financial situation, and divided parties.

Here are a few visuals in my hood:

Marche des solidarités

 

Marche des solidarités

Place de la Nation, Paris 

ce samedi 14 mars 2026 

Against fascism, racism, police brutality, and the war in the Middle East:

Thousands of people gathered in France on Saturday, 14 March, to defend solidarity, on the eve of the first round of municipal elections, the results of which were highly uncertain. 

At the call of numerous associations, some 85 demonstrations and rallies were organised.

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Contre le fascisme, le racisme, les violences policières et contre la guerre au Moyen-Orient : 

des milliers de personnes se sont rassemblées en France au nom de la défense des solidarités , samedi 14 mars, à la veille du premier tour des élections municipales, aux résultats très incertains. 

A l’appel de nombreuses associations, quelque 85 manifestations et rassemblements étaient organisés.

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On Reuters' Banksy investigation

 

Totally trivial with the current state of the world, but as a once-Bristol-historian, I just have to mention this:

Journalists at Reuters claim to have unmasked Banksy, the anonymous graffiti artist who has long ruled the U.K. art scene with politically provocative murals.

His name, they say, is... Robin Gunningham.

Which... well, his best friends (and as they told me, myself too) always knew that in Bristol, but who was listening?

In my book, it's page 128:

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Reuters says he recently changed his name to David Jones, at most a few years ago. 

"Whether he still uses that name is unclear", the investigation reports.

Details:

The publication makes a host of arguments as to why Gunningham is Banksy, backing up a 2008 report from The Mail on Sunday that also claimed Gunningham is Banksy. 

Led by reporters Simon Gardner, James Pearson and Blake Morrison, it details a complex and extensive hunt for Banksy’s real name.

From New York to London, the so-called investigation pulled its key piece information from a trip to Ukraine: Reuters says Bansky was photographed in November 2022, meeting with locals. 

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I remember when Robert posted photos on Instagram from his trip to Ukraine with Giles Duley. He posted in Feb. 2023, and I assumed he was there then... But he told me he had delayed publication in order to "avoid confusion with the Banksy trip". 

Indeed.

Well, confusion, as usual, not avoided...

The state of journalism...

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Aftermath:

Banksy’s lawyer, Mark Stephens, apparently wrote to Reuters that his client “does not accept that many of the details contained within [the] enquiry are correct.”

 Stephens also told the outlet that publishing their findings “violate(s) the artist’s privacy, interfere with his art and put him in danger,” as well as harm the public.

 “Working anonymously or under a pseudonym serves vital societal interests,” he wrote. “It protects freedom of expression by allowing creators to speak truth to power without fear of retaliation, censorship or persecution.”

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Additional note:

I met Robert Del Naja quite a few times for my book, studied his work in depth and have been corresponding with him for years. I also saw a lot of Bansky's work and exhibitions including the ultimate 'Dismaland. 

I studied art history for a year in Paris, and have been writing about culture & politices for over two decades.

I also interviewed Steve Lazarides for my book, Banksy's first manager and comms wizard.

What I can say is that the two men's art and personality are very different. Robert aka 3D is a visual and sound artist, who's work is voluntarily cryptic. Banksy 'stole' from him the idea of using stencils, it's almost certain, first considered controversial in the underground street art world in the 1980s, then groundbreakingly unseful, and now totally maintreamed.

If they hae a lot in common and are friends, their art could not be more different, and they like it that way.

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For more, a few links in my previous writing:

Banksy is it 3D from Massive Attack? The informed advice of a specialist

Bristol’s original graffiti artists — Reader’s Digest

Bristol Street Art History: Forty Years of Graffiti Arts - Where It All Began

ON BANKSY, MASSIVE ATTACK AND BRISTOL - IN CONVERSATION WITH MELISSA CHEMAM

What Underground Culture Has Given Bristol

Interview: The Story of Massive Attack and Bristol's Underground Culture

Bristol History Podcast - Episode 34 - Melissa Chemam in Conversation

US-Israel war on Iran

 

I'm so annoyed at the media coverage on Iran! "Middle East war" is a misnomer. It obscures who started this (the US and Israel), and who is bearing the brunt of it (Iran and Lebanon). Wrong framing! Plus quoting Trump's lies all day... What are Western media trying to achieve?

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Proper wording:

US-Israel war on Iran

See The New Arab for more: https://www.newarab.com/tag/us-israel-war-iran

More and more Tigrayans to flee north Ethiopia...

 

Following up on the sitaution in Ethiopia: 

Fears of renewed conflict drive more and more Tigrayans to flee north Ethiopia

While war rages in much of South West Asia, across the waters of the Red Sea, another conflict has been looming in the Horn of Africa for weeks: in Ethiopia's Tigray region. These past few days, more people have started to feel the regional capital fearing an open war, as the memory of the 2020/22 still haunts the region. 

Photo: AFP

Federal and Tigrayan forces are once again massing at their shared border in northern Ethiopia, as they did in January.

The last civil war in 2022 ended with a peace agreement that was never properly implemented, and after a few months, the relations between the regional and federal authorities have become highly volatile, while Ethiopia's ties with Eritrea, which borders Tigray, also worsened.

Since October 2025, the Ethiopian government has denounced "a clear collusion between the Eritrean government and the TPLF", with a view to a new war coming.

Amid this escalation, hundreds are now fleeing Tigray, a region populated by around six million people before the war, every day by bus or plane, even if it is difficult to estimate the exact numbers.

"Right now, the situation in Tigray is very tense, we hear a lot of things, but all we want is peace," a Tigrayan named Biruk told RFI's special correspondent sent to Makelle, the regional capital.

Verbal escalations and international divisions

The federal and Tigrayan administrations blame each other for the rising tensions.

"The federal troops are advancing" from all corners of Ethiopia. Amanuel Assefa, second-in-command of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), long the dominant party in the region, told AFP last week.

"And I can say that Tigray is being encircled by federal troops. The highly likely scenario seems that there will be a conflict," he added.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed keeps saying he does not want war, as he said again in a speech unusually delivered in Tigrinya, the language of Tigray, last week. But he also said the TPLF "wasn't ready to make even a small compromise".

Since 2023, the TPLF has also been divided.

Kinfe Hadush, the chairman of the opposition Sawet party, told RFI that, “wince Abiy came to power, Tigrayans feel more vulnerable. Today, not only does the TPLF no longer represent the interests of all of Tigray, but it also has no specific agenda. The TPLF just wants to mobilise the population for war. But the people are resisting; they don't want to participate in this war.”

The TPLF is facing internal problems and its popularity is declining, many observers told RFI.

“I acknowledge that the TPLF has many problems to solve," TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa told RFI. "But I can’t say that the party has the same support as it used to. If the TPLF was not accepted by all people, it would be overthrown, and another party would take power. But that’s not the case."

It's the federal government that is conspiring to dismantle the party by any means necessary, he asserted.

On the run

"There's nobody left here," Abel (a changed name to protect his identity) 
told AFP in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, as he himself tried to join other displaced people only to find buses full.

Most nights dozens of young men with backpacks and suitcases are seen at the bus station, looking for a means to leave, and hopefully reach the federal capital, Addis Ababa.

Some 700-kilometre separate Mekelle from Addis, one of the few areas of Ethiopia still at peace.

Abel is 23, and had fought for the Tigrayan Defence Forces during the civil war of 2020-22, opposing the rebels to the federal government.

The conflict killed at least 600,000 people.

He worries a renewed conflict is imminent. "It's not safe here anymore," Abel said. "I saw people die. I don't want to relive that; I don't want the war to catch up with me again."

In the whole of Tigray, people are facing shortages of basic products, from petrol to food. 

As federal authorities have cut subsidies to the region for months, even civil servants are no longer paid, and banks are running out of cash. 

 (with AFP, and partially adapted from this report in French)

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Read also my recent pieces on the situation in Ethiopia, Tigray and Eritrea:

*Widening rift between Eritrea and Ethiopia sparks fear of new conflict

*A year after the ceasefire in Tigray, Ethiopia is little closer to peace

*As Tigray clashes intensify, locals stockpile food and airline cancels flights

British-Iranians write to Starmer

 

Iranian British friend sent me this letter tonight:

For immediate release

Prominent British-Iranians write to Starmer urging him not to join war

Signatories include Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Aras Amiri and Nasrin Parvaz,  all former detainees in the notorious political prison of Evin

A letter signed by over 100 prominent British-Iranians is being sent today to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, urging him not to join in the Israeli and US attack on Iran.

All the signatories are opposed to the Iranian regime and several have spent time in political prisons in the country.

However their fear is that bombing Iran will not only kill innocent lives but will entrench the regime. The signatories say:

“Nobody can claim to want the end of the Islamic Republic more than we do. But attacking the country in this way will have the opposite effect. It will entrench the authoritarians and give life to the fiction that has sustained them internally for decades: that they are fighting western imperialism.”

They are highly critical of Israel’s assassination policy, despite being opponents of Iran’s authoritarians:

“When Netanyahu - a man charged with international war crimes after killing countless civilians in Gaza - assassinates Iran’s dictator that kills the man but immortalises the myth. Iranians wanted him tried and punished for his crimes, not given the martyr ending he craved.”

Signatories urge Britain and other countries to protect political prisoners in Iran’s jails from attack:

“A pro-democracy policy would protect political prisoners and ensure that Israel and the US do not bomb prisons like Evin. It is in those cells where the future democratic leaders of Iran reside.”

Signatories include Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, Aras Amiri and Nasrin Parvaz all former detainees from Evin, Iran’s notorious political prison.

Amiri, a writer and art producer who spent over 3 years as a political prisoner in Evin prison in Tehran said:

“The US and Israel have no right to attack another country, their impunity is enraging. We will not allow our rightful struggle for freedom to be used to justify another war. No war brings freedom—only destruction, suffering, and the loss of our shared humanity.”

Other prominent British-Iranians include comedian and Shaparak Khorsandi and author Kamin Mohammadi. 

A full list of signatories is available at togetherforiran.org

ENDS