On Burundi's political turmoil

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is in Burundi today for crisis talks, as current President Pierre Nkurunziza is running for a contested third term bid in Presidential election. The poll has been postponed to next week following months of violence.
Yoweri Museveni was appointed mediator last week by the five-nation East African Community (EAC). He is expected to organise talks between Pierre Nkurunziza's ruling CNDD-FDD party and opposition groups. 

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Melissa Chemam for Rfi Englsih

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Ugandan president declared on Tuesday morning in a statement that he would "establish a dialogue among rival political factions." He left for neighbouring Burundi, where the presidential election is now scheduled for July 21. So Yoweri Museveni only has very little time to succeed in this tough mission. Pierre Nkurunziza's bid to stand for a third consecutive five-year term has been forced despite the constitutional two-term limit. And it did spark months of civil unrest before and after an attempted coup mid-May.

Opposition groups consider that a potential third term violates the principles set in the last peace deal signed in Arusha to end a dozen years of civil war, from 1993 to 2006. There current crisis could plunge the impoverished, landlocked country back into a new civil war, many think. While both sides have made clear that their positions will not change.

For the ruling party, CNDD-FDD, the role of the Ugandan President could be crucial to convince the opposition not to boycott the election.

Willy Nyamitwe, the campaign manager for the Burundian President, says the "President Museveni knows the region, he knows Burundi and he is wise. So we hope that he will be able to show Burundians that the country has to respect its own laws and guarantee its sovereignty".

"Burundi is in an electoral period", he adds, "and the institutions elected in 2010 have to be renewed democratically. Burundi needs to end the current electoral process in order to move forwards on other issues. "The authorities expect from this visit that Museveni will convince the hardcore opposition that to reach power they have to go through the polls," he concludes.

President Museveni is only in the country for 24 hours. He is generally considered an ally to Pierre Nkurunziza and a representative of the African Union's trend to respect leaders in power. But the Arusha agreement signed in 2000 is supposed to reinforced the Burundian constitution, therefore to prevent the president for running for a third term. And the deal was signed under Yoweri Museveni's supervision.


So the opposition is expecting Museveni to convince Pierre Nkurunziza to give up on his presidential candidacy.

Léonce Ngendakumana, from the opposition says "the opposition expects Museveni to be not so much of a mediator but to protect the Arusha agreement, as he was presiding the discussions which enabled the its signature".

So the opposition clearly expects Museveni to convince the Burundian president not to run.

But Oxford University expert Jean-Benoit Falisse "cannot imagine that Museveni's visit would be enough to convince Pierre Nkurunziza to give up on his plan to run again".

The East African Community recommends for its part to postpone the polls to the end of July. Meanwhile, on the ground, more violence have been witnessed, especially at the Rwandan border. International bodies have again called for calm.